Crude oil 500dma

Crude oil ran into the 500 day moving average(purple line) at $82.50 last week. It's obvious that traders where taking profits there, since price could not close over the 500 dma. Look for crude oil to pull back and test old resistance at $75, which should be support now. Remember the 500dma, as the S&P and Dow Jones indexes are very close to theirs.

S&P 500... head & shoulders top?

The S&P 500 rallied 3% last week, that started on the full moon. Short term reversals are very common during a full moon. Now the S&P 500 is testing the 20 day moving average(yellow line), and starting to make a right shoulder there, as seen on the chart above. This week we have the last major Bradley date of 2009. That coupled with the Head and Shoulders pattern that is developing, and major overhead resistance(1108-1136), we could see whipper price action the next few weeks. I would not be surprised to see the S&P drop 100 points very fast. Right shoulders tend to be very fast moves. This week I'm watching the 1074 to 1085 level as resistance, on the Head and Shoulders pattern. I think we will see a new sideways trend start to develop, as professional money managers are now fully hedged(the "Bonus Put" in this weeks Barron's). Volume on down days is bigger than on up days. Investor sentiment readings the last 3 weeks, is showing bullishness has peaked, for now.

QQQQ yearly r1 pivot

the QQQQ (tech ETF), hit the Yearly R1 pivot(purple line R1) last week at $43.78. Are the highs in for this year on tech.? Open gap below(blue arrow) at $40.25 is next support.

Full Moon today

We usually get a short term trend reversal around full moons, as I have opined before. I am looking for the market to be up this week, before we resume the downtrend into the next major Bradley date(11/9). I am looking for the markets to possibly go down to the new monthly S1 pivots in the next few weeks. S&P 1000

Support and Resistance for this week 11/2/09

Dow support = 9700(50dma) and 9575 (gap)

Dow resistance = 9825(Wpp)

S&P support = 1016(Ws1) then 1000(Ms1)

S&P resistance = 1054(Wpp)

NDX support = 1638(gap), 1628(Ws1)

NDX resistance = 1703(Wpp), 1722(gap)

20 month moving average stops the S&P rally

For the past 25 years, when the S&P 500 is trading above the 20 month moving average(yellow line), the stock market has been in a multi-year bull market. When the S&P 500 is trading below the 20 month moving average(yellow line), the stock market has been in a multi- year bear market. The chart above clearly shows this. The S&P just tested the 20 month, but could NOT close over it. We are still trading below the 20 month(yellow line), and the yellow line is pointing DOWN. We are still in a bear market!

Click on the chart, for a bigger view