Thursday, November 26, 2009

Black Friday

Overnight, stock and futures markets around the world, sold off on the news, that Dubai will delay paying it's $59 billion in debt. The U.S. S&P futures market just closed for the Holiday, down almost 25 points (200 Dow pts.) or 2% from Wednesdays close. Most markets where down 3% in Europe and Asia overnight. While U.S. investors will be dinning on Turkey and visiting with family today, they have no idea that tomorrow morning, when the U.S. stock market opens, we are going to open down big! Black Friday this year, could be the beginning of a big crash.


Monday, November 23, 2009

Natgas Ms2 support

Natural gas futures last week, found some buyers on the monthly S2 pivot(green line marked S2). Looks like we have a short term bottom in on natgas. I'm looking for $4.75 - $5.00 this week on December natty.

Last week of Nov

The past 3 months, the S&P has gone down 3%, the last week of the month. Will the pattern stay the same this holiday week? We have a lot of economic data this week, that could move the market either way. Last week the Dow and S&P could not close above their weekly R1 pivot points(white line marked R1 at 1108), and pulled back to the weekly pivot(blue line marked P) by Friday. This week I'm looking for the open gaps at 1108 and 1070, as support and resistance on the S&P 500.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Crude oil Monthly pivot support

Crude oil came down to the monthly pivot(yellow line marked P at $75.76) last friday and is bouncing off it. It was resistance there last summer, which now has turned into support. Watch the weekly Pivot at $77.54 for support this week and first resistance at wr1 @$79.51. Pivots are where pit traders look for entries and exits.

Natty reversal

Natural Gas found support last week on the monthly s2 pivot(4.26). Looks like a short term buy to me. Watch the weekly pivot at $4.50 for support and wr2 at 4.86 for resistance this week on natty.

Friday, November 13, 2009

S&P-500 hits the 500 dma

As I wrote last Sunday, watch for resistance on the S&P at the 500 dma(purple line on the chart). This week the S&P went up to the 500dma, and now is starting to pullback. The 500 dma is usually strong resistance or support, depending on where price is. I'm looking for a pullback to the 21dma(yellow on the chart) at 1071.

EURO highs in for 2009?

the Euro hit DeMarks yearly high pivot(DMH) at 1.5048 and has failed it twice(see blue arrows at the top of the chart). Now we have a double top failure. Look for the dollar to rally.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Watching yearly R1 pivot

If the Yearly s1 pivot was the low in 2009, will the yearly R1 pivot be the high? 1136?

click on chart for bigger view

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Crude oil 500dma

Crude oil ran into the 500 day moving average(purple line) at $82.50 last week. It's obvious that traders where taking profits there, since price could not close over the 500 dma. Look for crude oil to pull back and test old resistance at $75, which should be support now. Remember the 500dma, as the S&P and Dow Jones indexes are very close to theirs.

S&P 500... head & shoulders top?

The S&P 500 rallied 3% last week, that started on the full moon. Short term reversals are very common during a full moon. Now the S&P 500 is testing the 20 day moving average(yellow line), and starting to make a right shoulder there, as seen on the chart above. This week we have the last major Bradley date of 2009. That coupled with the Head and Shoulders pattern that is developing, and major overhead resistance(1108-1136), we could see whipper price action the next few weeks. I would not be surprised to see the S&P drop 100 points very fast. Right shoulders tend to be very fast moves. This week I'm watching the 1074 to 1085 level as resistance, on the Head and Shoulders pattern. I think we will see a new sideways trend start to develop, as professional money managers are now fully hedged(the "Bonus Put" in this weeks Barron's). Volume on down days is bigger than on up days. Investor sentiment readings the last 3 weeks, is showing bullishness has peaked, for now.

Monday, November 2, 2009

QQQQ yearly r1 pivot

the QQQQ (tech ETF), hit the Yearly R1 pivot(purple line R1) last week at $43.78. Are the highs in for this year on tech.? Open gap below(blue arrow) at $40.25 is next support.

Full Moon today

We usually get a short term trend reversal around full moons, as I have opined before. I am looking for the market to be up this week, before we resume the downtrend into the next major Bradley date(11/9). I am looking for the markets to possibly go down to the new monthly S1 pivots in the next few weeks. S&P 1000

Support and Resistance for this week 11/2/09

Dow support = 9700(50dma) and 9575 (gap)
Dow resistance = 9825(Wpp)

S&P support = 1016(Ws1) then 1000(Ms1)
S&P resistance = 1054(Wpp)

NDX support = 1638(gap), 1628(Ws1)
NDX resistance = 1703(Wpp), 1722(gap)

Sunday, November 1, 2009

20 month moving average stops the S&P rally

For the past 25 years, when the S&P 500 is trading above the 20 month moving average(yellow line), the stock market has been in a multi-year bull market. When the S&P 500 is trading below the 20 month moving average(yellow line), the stock market has been in a multi- year bear market. The chart above clearly shows this. The S&P just tested the 20 month, but could NOT close over it. We are still trading below the 20 month(yellow line), and the yellow line is pointing DOWN. We are still in a bear market!

Click on the chart, for a bigger view