Sunday, November 8, 2009

S&P 500... head & shoulders top?

The S&P 500 rallied 3% last week, that started on the full moon. Short term reversals are very common during a full moon. Now the S&P 500 is testing the 20 day moving average(yellow line), and starting to make a right shoulder there, as seen on the chart above. This week we have the last major Bradley date of 2009. That coupled with the Head and Shoulders pattern that is developing, and major overhead resistance(1108-1136), we could see whipper price action the next few weeks. I would not be surprised to see the S&P drop 100 points very fast. Right shoulders tend to be very fast moves. This week I'm watching the 1074 to 1085 level as resistance, on the Head and Shoulders pattern. I think we will see a new sideways trend start to develop, as professional money managers are now fully hedged(the "Bonus Put" in this weeks Barron's). Volume on down days is bigger than on up days. Investor sentiment readings the last 3 weeks, is showing bullishness has peaked, for now.