Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Yearly R pivots stop the rally

All three of the June futures indexes, failed at the yearly R1 or R2 pivots, as per yesterdays blog. On the S&P June futures chart above, the YR1 Pivot was at 1211(purple line marked R1). We now have a trend change taken shape, since we closed below the 20dma(the yellow lines). I'm looking to short a test of the 20 dma at 1192ish.....and or 11032 on the Dow Jones. My guess is the 50 dma's(blue lines) is next support @1157/10750.

Monday, April 26, 2010

NDX futures tested YR1 today

NDX June futures kissed the yearly R1 pivot today at 2058. Look for a pullback to the weekly pivot at 2031 and 8dma(gray line).

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Euro tests MS1

Eur.usd tested and held the Monthly S1 pivot(green line marked S1) last Friday and the weekly S1 pivot(short white line). Ms1 has 75% odds of being the low for the month. Ditto for Weekly S1, being the low for the week, or daily s1 intraday. Euro looks bullish to me down here.

CitiGroup testing YR1

On December 12, 2009 I wrote that C was a buy at $3.12. It has now rallied almost $2 and is testing the Yearly R1 pivot(purple line R1) at $5.02. ...up 60%. I still like C, but look for a pullback to the 20($4.66) or 50dma($4.12).

Follow the Yellow Brick Road

When the good witch told Dorothy to "Follow the yellow brick road", in the Wizard of Oz, she must have meant the 20 day moving average (yellow line on the chart above). The S&P has not closed below the 20dma(yellow line) since the major Bradley Model turn date on March 1st. Smart money bought the pullback last week on the 20 dma at 1188. With the end of the month this week, we should see the Monthly R2 pivot hit at 1225, unless we get a full moon reversal back down to 1188. Use a close below the 20 dma(yellow line), as your exit plan on short term trades.

P.S. we are still in the danger zone with 80%+ of stocks above their 50 day moving average. We are also close to the 61.8% retracement fib, from the 2007 high to 2009 lows @1230ish.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Natty yearly S2 pivot holds

May Natgas futures held the Yearly S2 pivot(purple line marked s2). Coincidence? Not! The Monthly Pivot at $4.21(yellow line marked P) is next resistance/upside target. Are the lows for natty in for this year?

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

gone fishing

I'm going sailing for a week. I'll be back on the 22nd.

Happy Trading

F may 13 calls doubled in 5 days

Last week on www.freestockcharts.com, I posted in the friends area, I had bought some F(Ford) May 13 calls on the test of the 50 dma(blue line, green arrow buy signal). They have now doubled in 5 days. Up 100%

Citi up 65%

Citi is now up 65% since my December buy signal.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Rally continues but beware

The S&P continues to find support on the 8 day moving average(grey line). With Options Expiration this Friday, I'm looking for resistance @1210(yearly R1 pivot on the ES June contract) on the S&P and 12100 on the Dow Jones(12065 on the futures), and support coming in at 11800 and 1165. Beware, we are in the danger zone and we will see a reversal within 60-90 days or sooner, per last weeks chart. The market has never stayed in the danger zone(80% + stocks above their 50 dma for more than a few months. I am not looking for new long term positions up here. The best risk/reward spot to buy, is when the market does pull back to the yellow(20dma) or blue(50dma) line's an the chart above.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

the Danger zone

This chart shows what percent of stocks are trading above their 40 dma. The chart also shows when the percentage gets above 80%, to look for a pullback soon. We are actually at 90%, per CNBC. I'm looking for a pullback sometime soon to test the 20 dma or 50 dma. That will be a good buying opp.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

The rally continues

Sorry for the lack of updates, but nothing has changed. The indexes continue to find support on the 8dma(grey line). Continue to buy pullbacks there, until a close below it. Then look for support on the 20 dma(yellow line).