Sunday, August 14, 2011

start of a new bear market?

For the past 15+ years, whenever the S&P broke below the monthly 20 sma(yellow line), signaled that we are entering a bear Market. When the price went above the monthly 20 sma , we where back in a bull market. Last week, the price on the S&P 500 went below the monthly 20 sma. We are now back in a Bear market. Sell rallies as long as the S&P stays below 1200 on a monthly close.

Friday, August 12, 2011

head and shoulders pattern rules

I posted this chart a few weeks ago on Last summer's sell off ended with an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This summers sell off started with a head and shoulders pattern. Head and shoulders is the strongest reversal pattern in trading!

Monday, August 8, 2011

not looking pretty

My target of 1177 that I wrote about in early June was hit last week. The head and shoulders top I've been writing about for over a month is now playing out with the break of the neckline at 1260. Right shoulders are very fast moves, as we've seen the past 10days. The neckline break now puts us back into a bear market. I'm looking for 1st. support at 11050 which is the yearly Pivot Point. This free fall we've been in started at the yearly R2 Pivot. So it makes sense for price to pullback to the pivot point after testing the R2 pivot. We probably will go back up sometime and retest that old support of 1260ish. But the 2.5 year rally is now over. The highs we had this year could last for a few years.

update: 8/9/2011: market blew thru those targets. Next support is 10,475 on the Dow, 1100 on the S&P and 2000 on the NDX

Saturday, August 6, 2011