In 2010, we have several major planetary alignments, that only happens every 80 years. The first one starts this week and then another one next week. The Bradley Model's turning dates are based upon certain planetary alignments. The 2010 Bradley Model chart shows, starting around March 1(give or take a couple of weeks), we will see a new trend take shape, that will last through mid August 2010(see above chart). The slope of decline on the chart shows the new trend will be strong and fast. The Bradley Model only predicts the turning points, not the direction. Although the past 3 years have been uncanny accurate in the direction. The markets have been in consolidation since the last Bradley date on November 9, 2009. The summer rally ended in November and started a sideways(consolidation) trend, as the 2009 model predicted. Now, will the markets start a new rip roaring rally or start slip sliding away? We will know by the end of March or sooner. Also interesting is in 2010 the Bradley model hits it's lowest reading in 70 years on August 10th. on the siderograph (see chart below courtesy of Rosecast.com). Could we retest the 2007 highs soon or a re-test of last years low? There is a lot of gaps in both directions. I think we could see a 300-400 point move in the S&P 500 in the next 6 months, based on the 2010 model. The way I use the Bradley model for trading is, 1) when to look for turning dates, 2) it helps me to stay "in" the new trend, vs fighting it. Last year I knew a big rally would be starting around late winter or early spring, based on the 2009 model. When the markets bottomed last March, I was buying, when most where still shorting. It's all documented here in last years archive.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The Russell 2000 futures this month fell to the Monthly S1 pivot(see lower blue circle), and then rallied up to the Monthly R1 pivot(see top blue circle) yesterday. The Monthly pivots told traders where support and resistance is, for the month of February. Buy S1 sell R1. That's Pivot Power! If you bought 1 TF futures contract at S1 and sold it at R1, you would have made $5000 in 2 weeks.
Posted by Jeff York at 6:21 AM
Sunday, February 21, 2010
2 weeks ago I said, the S&P was giving a buy signal on the 150 dma and the Monthly S1 pivot(see green arrow). Since then the S&P has rallied 65 points to the 50 dma and Monthly Pivot point. This week, I'm looking for the S&P to go up to the monthly R1 Pivot at 1126, and possibly the Weekly R2 Pivot at 1133. Look for the Monthly PP to hold on any pullback at 1100 or possibly 1088(WS1).
Posted by Jeff York at 11:06 AM
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
I wrote a few weeks ago, that I thought the dollars rally would be coming to and end soon, at the Monthly and Yearly pivots around $80.65. I miss it by .10 cents. The March Dollar futures index went up to the Monthly R1 pivot and the Yearly R1 pivot(see blue arrows at top of chart), did a double top and now is starting to roll over. It could fall fast to the 20 or 50 dma. The Monthly pivot point is in between those ma's at $78.68. Stochastics are also rolling over from the over bought area and is doing a HNS pattern. The trend is still in tact to the upside, probably just needs to shake the weak longs out.
Posted by Jeff York at 9:53 AM
Monday, February 15, 2010
The 150 day moving average(dma) sure has been a popular spot for reversals. The S&P 500, Gold, Dow Jones, etc., all have found a floor there, this past week. Someone big(s) is buying there. Last July, the Dow Jones went down to the 150 dma and then started a 2500 pt. rally(see green arrow above July). Will it do the same this time? My gut says no, but I'm keeping an open mind to the possibility. Anything is possible.
Posted by Jeff York at 2:43 PM
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Since the S&P futures went down to the Monthly S1 Pivot(blue circle) at 1041 last week, it only makes sense that the market will go up to the Monthly Pivot Point at 1094 by this Fridays option expiration. The PP is where price is the most efficient. I'm looking for 1094 - 1106(50 dma) this week as long as the 150 dma at 1056 holds. It's also possible, that the S&P pit traders that went long at MS1 will run it up to MR1(1122) or back down to Ms1(1041).
Posted by Jeff York at 4:02 PM
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Freestockcharts.com(FSC) is a great charting program for free. They have added social networking to it so we can now share charts. All you need to do is sign up, create a profile, and add me as your friend. You can find me under "mtn.guy" on FSC. I will be posting notes on stocks I like.
Posted by Jeff York at 5:39 PM
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Crude oil came down last week and kissed the 200 day moving average(dma) at $70.50(white line). Typically, crude oil bottoms around the middle of February and starts going up into the Memorial Day weekend. This could be a nice short term trade as long as the 200 dma holds. If the price closes below the 200 dma, then next support is $65-$66 on the weekly 50 dma.. USO is another way to play oil.
Posted by Jeff York at 3:44 PM
What did I write last week? "Look for resistance at 1100 and support at 1042". That's exactly what happened. The S&P hit 1100 on Tuesday and then fell to 1040 by Friday. Traders that bought the Monthly S1 pivot at 1040 last Friday are happy traders, since we had a 20 pt bounce at the close. This is also setting up a buy signal with the "Long legged doji" pattern last Friday. We need to see confirmation with an "UP" open on Monday. Look for support this week at 1038 and resistance at 1100 again(maybe 1106). If we don't get confirmation, then we could see 1018 on the S&P soon. Remember, my signals are short term(a few days to a few weeks), not long term buy and hope.
Posted by Jeff York at 3:18 PM
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Last October I wrote that the November 9th, 2009 Bradley date, would be the start of a new sideways trend. As of today we are at the same price as last November. The stock market has gone no where in 3 months.
Posted by Jeff York at 12:06 PM