Monday, October 17, 2011

Opex week

I was looking for a pullback last week and I was wrong. Maybe we'll get it this week. We are very far from the moving averages and need to let them catch up. Also this week is options expiration(opex). Look for pinning of strike prices all week. Will the Dow Jones pin 12k or 11k? Will the S&P pin 1200 or 1250?

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Full moon reversal?

Per last weeks post, the S&P bounced off of 1075(monthly S1 pivot) and rallied 100 points. Up 5% off the lows. These bounces the past 2 months have been fast. So have the declines. No pullbacks to let you in. Makes you pay up, if you want to play. Every other week is up or down. Last week was up, my guess is this week will be down. We have a full moon too this week on Tuesday the 11th. I see resistance at 1200, which is the monthly R1 pivot and support is 1120.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Looking for a holiday rally to start soon

It's getting very negative out there. Some very smart traders(Tom Demarks, Doug Kass, etc) are looking for a big rally to start this month around the 1076 level on the S&P. As you can see on the chart, 1075 is the October monthly S1 pivot and a double bottom test of the August lows. If we close below 1075 then look for 1028-1038 for next support. I do agree that the 1075 level does look like a strong support zone. My plan is to be a buyer there with a 5 point stop loss. Until then short the rallies up to 1160.
UPDATE: 10-4-11: we hit 1075 today......1173 (50 sma) is next resistance. we could rally going into 1st qtr of 2012. BUY THE DIPS!* As long as the S&P stays above 1075.