Monday, July 26, 2010

stocks I'm watching this week

TIVO - 50dma breakout
YHOO - hammer reversal signal
BPZ - possible trend change now that it's above the 20dma
BWEN - back above the 20 and 50 dma's
F - looking for resistance at $13.10 Monthly R2

and several more picks on under the friends name "mtn.guy"

Sunday, July 25, 2010

S&P 200dma next

The S&P 500 had a nice rally last week off the 20dma(yellow line). Look for a possible full moon reversal on Monday. The high in June was on the full moon! Look for resistance at the 200dma(white line @1113) or the 100dma(dk. blue line @1128). The 50dma(1084) needs to hold this week. A close above 1128(10600 on the Dow) and we have a new bull market!

Merriman has another excellent free commentary this week.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

From Merriman last weekend

"So let me say it really simply. We are entering a time band of perhaps the most powerful geocosmics signatures of a lifetime. We’ve never seen anything quite like what we are about to witness in the next month. So we don’t really know what to expect, except the unexpected. Normally we might think the Saturn-Uranus opposition would be a crash, and it might be. The previous four times in this series, it has correlated with a crest (not a trough), and after three of those times, the DJIA fell over 1500 points within the next 3-6 weeks. If you want to trade, you have to be nimble and ready to reverse quickly, perhaps on an almost daily schedule. If you cannot handle the stress of risk, stay out and watch this cosmically historical pattern unfold, and watch with amazement at the types of human activities and financial market movements that will likely unfold – assuming they don’t do the unexpected and absolutely nothing of note happens."

full article

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Short term sell sig negated

Last Friday's big down day told us the short term up trend(rally) has stopped, and we are now on a short term sell signal. Last week, the Dow Jones went up to the 200dma(white line) and failed. Now it has pulled back to the 20dma(yellow line). There is an open gap at approx. 10,020 that looks to be filled at todays open. This week, support comes in at 9700-9800 and resistance is at 10200-10300. We are getting close to the 2010 Bradley Model 80 year low reading on August 10th., so be defensive. It could get ugly!

UPDATE: The Dow jones filled the open gap today @10k and took off to the upside. Next closest open gap is at 10355 and the 200dma is @10400. Look for support @10100(20dma). The short term sell signal is now negated. Buy the dips(short term trade) as long as the 20dma holds @10100.

Monday, July 12, 2010

a little more upside for OPEX

It's options expiration week(OPEX). What a rally the market had last week. Stochastics are still pointing up, so we should continue up to the 50dma(bluse line)@10300 or 200 dma(white line)@10400. Support comes in on pullbacks to 10k. I'll be out of town until 7/20.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

August Crude oil on YS1

August Crude oil futures, are bouncing off the Yearly S1 pivot(purple line marked S1) at $71.20. That seems to be a floor for now. Look for a pop back up to possibly $75-$76 for a short term trade. A close below 70.85(MS1) is the stop.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Way oversold

It has been a brutal 2 weeks for investors. The Dow Jones has dropped 1000 pts. in the past 10 trading days(2weeks). The failure at the 50 dma(blue line) on 6/21, told traders to look for a new low for the year. And that's exactly what happened. The market made a new low for 2010 last week. Now stochastics are oversold at 6, and the 8 dma is way up at 10k. The market needs to consolidate the big drop it made the past 2 weeks. It does it by either going sideways, to let the moving averages catch up, or by rally up to them and/ or open gaps above. This week I'm looking for resistance at 10050(Monthly Pivot point) and support at 9500(monthly S1 pivot). We are not out of the woods just yet. There's more downside to come!