Thursday, July 30, 2009

Pivot Power

This is how good traders use pivots as there entry and exits for day trades.
Trading just 1 contract(cost $1,750), you could have made 31 pts or $620 for the day on 2 trades.

S&P 1000

Back in mid March, I wrote on here, that the S&P could rally up to 1000. We now have rallied 50% off the lows. We are at the yearly pivot and the top of a megaphone pattern, which is usually bearish, as seen in the chart above. Volume has been light this past July. BE CAREFUL with NEW long positions up here.

Euro update

Euro ran into resistance early in the week at the weekly R1 pivot, and came down to the weekly s2 pivot, and now is sitting on the 50 day moving average(blue line).

Monday, July 27, 2009

Euro close to resistance

The Euro is close to resistance at the yearly P and monthly R1 pivots @1.4334. Look for a double top there.

Dow at resistance again?

The Dow futures are testing the yearly P and monthly R2 pivots.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Watch 986 on the S&P

the S&P yearly chart shows the yearly S1 pivot(658) came very close(8 pts.), to being the low of the year last March. Will the yearly P pivot(yellow line P) at 986 be the highs for the year? Or close to it? My feeling is yes.

Dow at resistance again?

Last week I wrote, I was looking for the market to trade between 8000-8500. I was wrong. The market traded from 8100 to 8700. Last week, the markets rallied off the 150 day moving average(at 8100), and brought us back up to the 200 day moving average(white line @8700). This is where the market ran into resistance last month. Will it be resistance again, and we pullback to 8300? or do we breakout to new highs for the year? I am looking for wild price swings in the next 2 weeks, as the planets and a solar eclipse will rule traders/investors emotions.The ancient Chinese text, Records of the Grand Historian, written more than 2,000 years ago, describes eclipses as indicators of change.

Friday, July 17, 2009


Apple hit it's yearly R1 pivot today at $151. Are the highs for the year in? We'll find out on Tuesday when they announce their 2nd quarter earnings. I think Apple drops back down to the yearly P at $115 in the coming months.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

S&P looking for gaps

The S&P pulled back to the 875 level last week and filled an open gap there from early May. The head and shoulders pattern never closed below the neckline @875. It went below the neckline intraday only.....could not close below it. The next closest open gap is at 944 and 906(from today). 954 is the monthly r2 pivot and the highs from June. That should be very strong resistance. If we break above that, we'll test the yearly pp at 986/1000. Look for 906 before 1000....imo.

Crude on support

Crude oil has traded between the yearly r1 pivot at $73(pink line) down to the yearly P(yellow line) and the monthly s3 pivot at $58.40. Today crude oil is retesting the monthly s2 pivot, and a bottom. Look for more upside to $64-$66. Traders use pivots as there entry and exit targets.....or as support and resistance targets.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Bradley Model

We have a major turn date this week per the Bradley Model. This years model calls for the markets to make yearly highs this month and then a sell off into Sept/Oct. The turn dates can be 7-10 days off.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

this weeks thoughts

When the Dow open last Monday below the weekly P pivot(yellow line marked P), I knew it would be a down week and to look for support at the s1 or s2 pivot(white line marked s1 or s2). That's exactly where the Dow stopped going down last week..... on the weekly s2 pivot. This coming week the Dow's weekly P is at 8187. If we open below that, it probably will be another down week, and I will look for first support on s1 at 8046. If we open above the weekly P(8187), I will be looking for an up week and first resistance will be at the weekly r1 pivot at 8287. We have option expiration this Friday, so volatility will be high. I think we'll trade between 8000 and 8500 this coming week. If we break 8000, look for support around 7910(monthly s2 pivot).

U.S. Dollar

The weekly pivots, was the high(r1) and the low(s1) for the past week on the U.S. Dollar. The Euro also went from weekly s1 pivot to the weekly P pivot last week. Weekly pivots give short term swing traders a BIG edge, by defining the weeks trading range.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Natural Gas

Natural gas kissed the Yearly S3 pivot this week at $3.35. Natgas typically bottoms in July and starts to run up in price into the fall months. Look for a possible bottom in natgas here. UNG is the Natgas etf. Use a tight stop as natgas could fall even more with the recession.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Crude oil...r the highs in?

crude oil hit the yearly R1 pivot at $73 and now has pull backed to the yearly P pivot at $59.72. I think we've seen the highs and lows for this year in crude oil.

Gold charts

Gold's high this year was at the year R1 pivot at $1011 and the low has been the yearly Pivot at $867, as seen with the blue arrows on the chart. Traders need to watch the yearly pivots for the years trading range ( usually s1 to r1). Pivots tells traders where to look for support on resistance.

Monday, July 6, 2009

NDX for short term trading

The NDX futures today found support(blue arrow) on the weekly s1 pivot(Ws1) @1422. When the market opens the week at Weekly r1 or s1, that usually means the high or low for the week is in, and look for the Weekly pivot as your next target. I went long today @ (1426). The DOW, Euro and S&P also hit there Ws1 pivots today.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Dow Jones chart

the Dow Jones also went from weekly R1 to weekly S1 pivots, this past week( blue arrows).

Weekly floor traders pivot points

One of my favorite tools are called pivot points. They are a calculation based on the previous Open/high/low/close bar. Pivots are used in daily, weekly, monthly and yearly charts. They have been used for 50+ years, by floor traders at the NYSE and pit traders. R stands for "Resistance" and S stands for "Support". The chart above, shows how the weekly pivots(see the blue arrows) for this past week, was the high and low (R1 to S1) ....... almost to the penny! I use pivots to look for short term trend changes, and for my entry and exit targets. I use daily pivots for day trading, and weekly or monthly pivots for longer term swing trades(a few days to a few weeks).

this could be the start of a pullback

The DOW is starting to look weak after hitting the the 200 day a few weeks ago, and now is testing the 8200 level again, which has been support for 2 months. There is also a head and shoulders pattern too, which is bearish. If the Dow closes below 8200, this could be the start of a big decline. I would not be surprised to see 7500 or less by the end of summer. Bradley Model is calling for a trend change in July.