Trading just 1 contract(cost $1,750), you could have made 31 pts or $620 for the day on 2 trades.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Back in mid March, I wrote on here, that the S&P could rally up to 1000. We now have rallied 50% off the lows. We are at the yearly pivot and the top of a megaphone pattern, which is usually bearish, as seen in the chart above. Volume has been light this past July. BE CAREFUL with NEW long positions up here.
Posted by Jeff York at 11:55 AM
Monday, July 27, 2009
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Last week I wrote, I was looking for the market to trade between 8000-8500. I was wrong. The market traded from 8100 to 8700. Last week, the markets rallied off the 150 day moving average(at 8100), and brought us back up to the 200 day moving average(white line @8700). This is where the market ran into resistance last month. Will it be resistance again, and we pullback to 8300? or do we breakout to new highs for the year? I am looking for wild price swings in the next 2 weeks, as the planets and a solar eclipse will rule traders/investors emotions.The ancient Chinese text, Records of the Grand Historian, written more than 2,000 years ago, describes eclipses as indicators of change.
Posted by Jeff York at 6:59 AM
Friday, July 17, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
The S&P pulled back to the 875 level last week and filled an open gap there from early May. The head and shoulders pattern never closed below the neckline @875. It went below the neckline intraday only.....could not close below it. The next closest open gap is at 944 and 906(from today). 954 is the monthly r2 pivot and the highs from June. That should be very strong resistance. If we break above that, we'll test the yearly pp at 986/1000. Look for 906 before 1000....imo.
Crude oil has traded between the yearly r1 pivot at $73(pink line) down to the yearly P(yellow line) and the monthly s3 pivot at $58.40. Today crude oil is retesting the monthly s2 pivot, and a bottom. Look for more upside to $64-$66. Traders use pivots as there entry and exit targets.....or as support and resistance targets.
Posted by Jeff York at 2:36 PM
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Sunday, July 12, 2009
When the Dow open last Monday below the weekly P pivot(yellow line marked P), I knew it would be a down week and to look for support at the s1 or s2 pivot(white line marked s1 or s2). That's exactly where the Dow stopped going down last week..... on the weekly s2 pivot. This coming week the Dow's weekly P is at 8187. If we open below that, it probably will be another down week, and I will look for first support on s1 at 8046. If we open above the weekly P(8187), I will be looking for an up week and first resistance will be at the weekly r1 pivot at 8287. We have option expiration this Friday, so volatility will be high. I think we'll trade between 8000 and 8500 this coming week. If we break 8000, look for support around 7910(monthly s2 pivot).
Posted by Jeff York at 7:52 AM
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Natural gas kissed the Yearly S3 pivot this week at $3.35. Natgas typically bottoms in July and starts to run up in price into the fall months. Look for a possible bottom in natgas here. UNG is the Natgas etf. Use a tight stop as natgas could fall even more with the recession.
Posted by Jeff York at 1:17 PM
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Gold's high this year was at the year R1 pivot at $1011 and the low has been the yearly Pivot at $867, as seen with the blue arrows on the chart. Traders need to watch the yearly pivots for the years trading range ( usually s1 to r1). Pivots tells traders where to look for support on resistance.
Posted by Jeff York at 2:52 PM
Monday, July 6, 2009
The NDX futures today found support(blue arrow) on the weekly s1 pivot(Ws1) @1422. When the market opens the week at Weekly r1 or s1, that usually means the high or low for the week is in, and look for the Weekly pivot as your next target. I went long today @ (1426). The DOW, Euro and S&P also hit there Ws1 pivots today.
Posted by Jeff York at 1:22 PM
Thursday, July 2, 2009
One of my favorite tools are called pivot points. They are a calculation based on the previous Open/high/low/close bar. Pivots are used in daily, weekly, monthly and yearly charts. They have been used for 50+ years, by floor traders at the NYSE and pit traders. R stands for "Resistance" and S stands for "Support". The chart above, shows how the weekly pivots(see the blue arrows) for this past week, was the high and low (R1 to S1) ....... almost to the penny! I use pivots to look for short term trend changes, and for my entry and exit targets. I use daily pivots for day trading, and weekly or monthly pivots for longer term swing trades(a few days to a few weeks).
Posted by Jeff York at 7:19 PM
The DOW is starting to look weak after hitting the the 200 day a few weeks ago, and now is testing the 8200 level again, which has been support for 2 months. There is also a head and shoulders pattern too, which is bearish. If the Dow closes below 8200, this could be the start of a big decline. I would not be surprised to see 7500 or less by the end of summer. Bradley Model is calling for a trend change in July.
Posted by Jeff York at 6:26 PM