Wednesday, June 30, 2010

1040 support Broke

On May 31st. I wrote that I thought the S&P futures would test 1019 sometime in June. June ended today on the lows for the month at 1024. I was close! Now I'm looking for 977 to 952 in July. On the Dow Jones, I'm looking for a 9000 test sometime in July. We are quickly coming into the August 10th Bradley date. The lowest reading in the past 80 years happens on that date. Look for extreme bearish sentiment and fear in late July / early August.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

mixed signals

Last week the Dow Jones went from the daily 50dma(blue line) to the weekly 50dma(green line). On the charts of the Dow and S&P, I am getting mixed signals on which direction the market will go this coming week. Here is the latest Dow chart.
1) on a 3 month chart, the Dow is making a right shoulder on a inverted head and shoulders pattern, on the weekly 50dma. This usually is a bullish pattern.
2) Last Thursday/Friday could be a bullish harami pattern on the weekly 50dma, but it was below the daily 20dma.
3) There are open gaps at 9900 and at 10300. Maybe both get filled this week?
4) Stochastic are still pointing down and have more room to go until there oversold.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Quad Opex week

I'm out of town until 6/24(back in CO). We have a Quad expiration this Friday. This week I'm looking for the Dow Jones to go UP to 10365, and possibly pin the 10500 strike. On the DOWN side look for support at 10,000 first and then 9900. These numbers line up with the weekly A close above 10365 and we could be back into a bull market mode short term.

On the S&P futures chart above, we see that the September contract found support on the Yearly S1 pivot(blue circles on the bottom of the chart on the purple line marked S1) at 1040. This week look for a test of 1105(YPP) and maybe even YR1 @ 1135.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Gold Yearly R1 Pivot

August Gold futures did a double top at the Yearly R1 Pivot(blue circles on R1). There is a 70% chance that the 2010 high's are in on gold. There is a 30% chance that gold will go higher to $1300. Do you feel lucky?

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Put your crash helmets on

Wow......what an ugly day last Friday was. The Dow Jones was down 323 pts on heavy volume. The Trin closed the day at 14. I have never seen the Trin that high. My charts, my gut and the 2010 Bradley Model are telling me, we have much more downside to go. We may get a relief rally this coming week or a another crash. The 2010 Bradley Model says this downtrend will last until August 10, 2010. The next area of support for the Dow Jones this week is at 9550 and resistance is at 10,100. The Fed may try to intervene this week, but I don't know what more they can do. Adding more debt is like throwing gasoline on a burning fire. It will only make the situation worse!

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Natgas lows are in for 2010

As I wrote last month, Natgas has bottomed on the Yearly S2 pivot with a inverted head and shoulders pattern(blue circles on the bottom of the chart). I'm looking for a BIG run up in Natgas into this fall. Also, the prediction of an active hurricane season will help move price higher. UNG is the Natags ETF if you don't want to trade the futures. I'm long the UNG Oct $9 calls at $.33 cents, with a $.25 cent stop loss. I'll be moving my stop loss up to break even today(.33). I'm currently up 90% on this trade in 1 week.