Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Wheat Yearly Pivot stops the run

Wheat futures ran into the Year R4 Pivot(see blue circle) to the penny! I'm looking for wheat futures to pullback to 600 (Yearly pivot and 50 dma).

Monday, August 30, 2010

Bond rally needs a rest

The TBT etf is showing a short term buy signal. The TBT could go back up to $34-$35 and fill some gaps and test the 20dma. I'm long TBT Sept calls and I'm using a close below $31 as my stop loss. It's a tight stop becuase picking bottoms is dangerous.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

The wild ride continues

The S&P last week, went down to 1040, the old support level from last June. This month, the S&P's & Dow Jones high was on the New Moon and the low(so far) was on the Full Moon. As you can see on the chart above, 1040 is the Yearly S1 pivot on the S&P emini futures September contract. Also, it is making an inverted head and shoulders pattern at 1040. That's the line in the sand. This week I'm looking for resistance at 1076(20dma) - 1085(weekly R1 pivot and 50dma) and support at the weekly S1 pivot @ 1040. This week my plan is to buy pullbacks as long as we stay above 1060(Weekly pivot). If 1040 breaks down then look for support at the 400/500dma at 1010-1020.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Intel yearly pivots working

Intel's high this year was in April at the Yearly R1 pivot(blue circle). Today Intel bounced off the Yearly Pivot Point(blue arrow). Coincidence? NOT
INTC should bounce here... use $18 as a stop loss.
$18 broke yesterday....$15 probably next support. $14.35 is yearly S1.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Full moon reversal?

The Dow Jones and S&P both broke their 50dma last week. The 1064 gap on the S&P was filled Friday. In my opinion, this chart pattern above, does not look bullish. The right shoulder failed at 10700. Now it looks like we started a wave 3 down last Thursday, after doing a wave 2 consolidation earlier last week. Stochtastics are in the oversold area, so we may rally this week. We also have a Full Moon which usually bings a short term reversal. Look for support at 10,000 and 1040 this week.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Crude oil close to bottom of the channel

Look for crude oil to find support $73-74. Also the MS1pivot(green line S1) is there. MR1 was the high for the month.
Crude broke the $73 support level. Next support is at the Ms2 pivot @$69.28

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Gold HNS pattern

Gold is making a head and shoulders(HNS) pattern(white circles). I'm watching the 1250 area for a right shoulder failure.

Monday, August 16, 2010

eur/usd 200dma - 50dma

The Eur.usd ran into the 200dma last week and today is bouncing off the 50dma. Amazing how simple moving averages can show where resistance and support is. Look for a re-test of the 20dma at 1.3050

Sunday, August 15, 2010

10200 needs to hold

Is this the start of a big move? The Dow / futures needs to hold the 50 dma if the market has any chance of a rally.This is options expiration week(OPEX), and we will see the dow pin the 10500 strike and/or the 10,000 strike by Friday.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Golds 50dma next res

Last week I said "look for Gold to go up to $1200". It did that and then some. This week I'm looking for resistance at the 50dma and Wr1 pivot between 1216 - 1218. Support comes in at the 20dma(1192) and the Mpp(1197).

Sunday, August 1, 2010

We are setting up for a big move

Last weeks high on the S&P futures, was exactly at the Weekly R1 Pivot @1118. This coming weeks WR1 pivot is at 1117 and WS1 is at 1081. The chart shows we are setting up for a BIG MOVE any day now. Since we are trading above the 20dma I have to be bullish short term. A close above 1128 will signal a re-test of this years April's high's. A close below WS1/20dma(1080) and I'll put the bear suit back on.

Gold looking for $1200

December Gold futures did a 3day IHS on the 150dma and the WS2 pivot last week. It looks like gold made a short term trend change and wants to test the $1200 area / 20 dma. If 1160 breaks then next support is at the 200dma @ 1150.