Monday, December 28, 2009

Happy New Year

I'll be traveling this week, to a warmer climate for the winter. I wish everyone a Happy and Healthy New Year.

Remember, I've been looking for S&P 1136 for the 2009 high.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Dollar rally

The U.S. Dollar hit the monthly R2 pivot last friday. With the 20 dma crossing the 50 dma on a daily chart, says the run should continue.

Natgas fills gap, kisses MR2 / weekly 50 and 76 fib

Natgas has had quite the move, since my buy call on monthly s1 at $4.44, a few weeks ago. Last week, natgas went up to the monthly R2 pivot(green line marked R2) @$5.85, the weekly 50 moving average(green line), filled an open gap(blue arrow) from last October and hit the 76.4% fib re-tracement. LOL Those confluences are resistance. Look for a pull back this week to maybe R1 / 50 dma(blue line) $5.33 - $5.50.

Gold 50 dma

Gold last week, was capped by the monthly Pivot(yellow line marked P) at 1141, and support was 1100. Gold has now pulled back 10% from the highs earlier in the month. Gold is making a bullish harami pattern, but needs confirmation. The short term trend is still down(long term is still up), but that may change this week if gold can break above the 20dma at 1156. I think gold will trade between 1156 and 1050. If 1120 breaks we go to 1156.....if 1085 breaks we go to 1050.

Consolidation pattern

Last week the indexes didn't make new highs on the new moon, but the Dow futures did. Also last week, the weekly R1 pivots where the highs and weekly S1 was support. The consolidation pattern continues! For the past 30 days, the best way to trade this sideways consolidation is to short Dow 10500, and cover at 10250-10300. Or buy 10250-10300 on pullbacks and sell 10500. That pattern will probably change soon. The 50 day moving average below(blue line) at 10175 and the monthly Pivot is the next support area. There are open gaps at 10450 and at 9978. That's the trading range I am looking for this week 10450 - 9978. Tuesday we have GDP and existing home sales.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Citi hits MS4

Buyers showed up yesterday when CitiCorp (C) hit the monthly S4 pivot at $3.07(blue circle on the green line marked s4). Looks like a buy to me if $3.07 holds. I'm long at $3.12 with a $3.00 stop loss.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

S&P this week

For the past several months, on the new moon, is the day the stock market would make new highs, each month. The December new moon is this Wednesday the 16th. This coming week is also quad expiration. I still think we'll trade between the Monthly r1 at 1125, and the monthly pivot point at 1072 this week. Things will get very interesting next week!

Gold 50 dma

Gold has fallen almost 10% in 8 days. The 50 day moving average(blue line) is very close at 1104 on the Feb 2010 futures. I think gold will find support there this week, and bounce back up to the Mpp or 20 dma(yellow line). If not, watch 1093(Ws1) or 1085(MS1).

Euro slide continues

The Euro has taken a beating the past few weeks, as the U.S. dollar shorts get squeezed. Look for support this week at 1.4500(WS1), and then at 1.4407 on monthly S2.

Crude oil on 200 dma

January oil futures closed last Friday right on the 200 day moving average(white line) at $69.50. Look for a little bounce here before it heads lower to $67.88 or $66.66.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Natgas monthly pivots

Natgas last week bounced off the monthly S1 pivot at $4.44(blue arrow) and today hit the monthly R1 pivot at $5.33(blue arrow). Thats almost a 25% move in 1 week. Pro traders use daily, weekly and monthly pivots for entry and exits. Just pick your time frame, you want to trade.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Gold hits yearly R2 pivot

Gold went up to the yearly R2 pivot at $1203 and fell $60 dollars on Friday. We may pullback to $1033, and test last years high. In 1980 Gold fell 35% in 7 days. Watch out in 2010!

S&P tests 1120

This past week, the S&P 500 tested 1120....the 50% retracement fib(mid), from the all time high in October 2007, to the March lows this year. The market has made back 50% of it's losses. I have been saying for a few months now, that I was looking for 1120-1136, for the 2009 highs. The yearly R1 pivot is at 1136. This is a major resistance area. Looking at the chart above, we have been going sideways since the November Bradley date. New highs have been sold, not bought, like last spring and summer. This is the new trend. Look for more of the same this week, as we consolidate more. Trading range 1070-1128.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009


AIG this year, has played off the yearly pivots(purple lines, and blue circles) to perfection. Why did buyers show up last March, when AIG went down to the S2 pivot at 6.40? Why did sellers come out 2 times this past fall, and sell AIG right at the R1 pivot at 53.6? Is it possible that smart money / market makers are using Pivot Points? Or is it just a coincidence? If you think the latter, you should not be a trader!