Monday, August 31, 2009

Freddie runs into major resistance

Freddie Mac ran into the yearly pivot(yellow line marked P and blue arrow) last Friday, and today is starting to selling off. Smart traders used the yearly pivot to book profits and some traders went short there.

Euro likes daily pivots

Today, the Eur.Usd found support on the intraday S1 pivot and a double bottom on S1(see blue arrows), and rallied up to the R1 pivot. Pivots give traders an entry and exit plan to trade.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

HGSI is a 10 bagger

Back in April on this blog, I recommended buying HGSI at $2. It hit $24 yesterday for a 10 bagger.

S&P monthly pivot tough

The S&P ran into the monthly R1 pivot(green line marked R1) this week at 1033 and cannot close over it. Now were getting a small sell off that should take us back down to 1000- 1005 and fill the open gap(blue arrow) there.
Traders in my trading room have been shorting the monthly r1 pivot.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

S&P targets

The S&P bounced off the yearly S1 pivot last March(blue circle). Will the Yearly R1 pivot be it's high at 1225, or the open gap at 1100?

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Home Prices still going down

I find it funny that some say the housing market has now bottomed, based on today's news.

"The S&P/Case-Shiller home-priceindex declined 15.4 percent from a year earlier, the smallest drop since April 2008, the group said today in New York."

When we start hearing or read that home prices fell less than 1% year over year, then and ONLY then will we start to form a bottom! There is no bottom when prices are still falling 15%+.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Natgas likes monthly pivs

Natgas futures has gone from the monthly R1 pivot to monthly s2 pivot. Today it bounced off of the monthly s2 pivot(green line marked S2). Pivots show traders where to look for support and resistance.
click on the chart for a larger view

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Crude oil @ resistance?

Crude oil is back near the yearly R1 pivot(purple line marked R1) at $75, after bouncing off the yearly Pivot(yellow line marked P) @$61.00. Will the double top hold, or break?

S&P 20 month chart

Last week the S&P finally broke through the 38% Fibonacci, which was resistance for the past month. Now the next major resistance traders/investors will be watching is the 20 month moving average. As seen in the chart above, the yellow line is the 20 month moving average. When the S&P index is above the 20 month, we are in a bull market. When the S&P is below the 20 month, we are in a bear market, as shown over the past 12 years, in the above chart. We currently are still below the 20 month!
click on the chart for a larger view

Sunday, August 16, 2009

On hiatus this week

The market the past 2 weeks has been hitting it's head at key resistance ie: the 38% fib and yearly pivots on the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ is hitting the 50% fib. This coming week is August expiration. Look for wild price swings this coming week.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009


The XLF is an ETF that tracks the major banks(BAC, C, WFC, etc) and brokers(GS, JPM, MS etc.). The XLF's low in March was at the Yearly S1 pivot(purple line marked S1), as seen on the chart above(blue circle). The XLF came close to the Yearly P(yellow line marked P) today and sold off. This is a text book pivot play from S1 to P. The 5 month bank rally could be in trouble.
click on the chart for a bigger picture.


GOOG went up to the yearly R1 pivot(purple line marked R1), and the Monthly R1 pivot(green line marked R1) at $465 last week, and investors/traders took profits there. Remember R pivots = resistance(sellers), and S pivots = Support(buyers). The 20/21 day moving averages(yellow lines) are still pointing up, but you have to respect the pivots. Those yearly/monthly R1 pivots at $465 could be Googles high for this year!

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Euro monthly pivots working

The Euro last week went up to the monthly R1 pivot(green line marked R1), and and fell hard Friday, down to the Monthly Pivot(blue line marked P), and the 20 dma(yellow lines). The Euro may find support here next week. Pivots are a traders best tool!

crude oil at resistance

Crude oil is making a head and shoulders pattern at the yearly R1 pivot at $73. I'm looking for a pullback in crude oil prices this week.

Nazdaq hitting a wall

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has not been able to break the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1635. The 50 fib is usually strong resistance or support( on pull backs). In this case it's resistance.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

S&P futures hits yearly Pivot

The S&P futures kissed the yearly pivot point at 1005(purple marked P), the past 2 days. The yearly pivot is calculated by adding the previous years High/Low/Close and divide by 3. The yearly S1 pivot was the low back in March. I still think we get a pullback from here.

Full moon this week

Beware of a Full Moon reversal this week!

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Levels to watch

we are at or very close to some major pivots and Fibonacci numbers:

Dow Yearly P = 9364
S&P futures Yearly P= 1005

FIBS(from Oct '07 to May '09)
Dow 38% fib=9420
S&P 38% fib=1014
Nazz 50% fib 1630... we are there now

S&P 200 month average=1014