The S&P has more downside to go. This pullback has many traders trapped. 3 months of gains have been wiped out in 2 weeks. The gap at 1069 was filled last Friday, and the next open gaps below are at 1047 and 1042. February's monthly S1 pivot is at 1045 and 1095-1100 is now resistance. We haven't had a 10% correction since we hit bottom last March. That could bring the S&P to 1035. Stochastics are very oversold, which means we could get a bounce this coming week. Be careful, this falling knife is very sharp!
Sunday, January 31, 2010
The U.S. dollar has had a big rally the past 2 months, now this rally is close to major resistance at the 50 week moving average(green dashed line on the chart above) at $80. It should stall there, and possibly come back down to retest the 200 day moving average at $78.50. The February R1 monthly pivot is at 80.65.
Posted by Jeff York at 6:23 PM
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
Pivot point analysis for 2010 says the indexes should trade between:
Dow Jones yearly R1 pivot=11849....and yearly S1 pivot= 7738
S&P yearly R1 pivot=1275 and yearly S1=811
Gold Yearly R1=1283......yearly S1=857
Crude oil yearly R1=97.15.......yearly S1=47.41
Posted by Jeff York at 6:17 AM
Saturday, January 9, 2010
ppy New year all and I hope everyone is keeping warm! I'm made to the beach, where it is cold too. Before I talk about the new year, let's review the past year. I started this blog last March, the week after the S&P hit 666. Back then I thought that we could rally 50%(666+333) to 1000 on the S&P. Most thought I was crazy last March and April. Actually, I was looking for a bottom to form 1 month earlier in late January/February. The reason why is the 2009 Bradley model showed a big rally would start in January/February. Just like in 2008 the Bradley Model called for a big down move in 2008(we fell almost 50%). The 2009 model showed a trend change was going to start on July 15th, 2009. We started a 2000 point rally in July 2009, from 8000 to 10,000 on the Dow Jones.. I thought we would start a 50% pullback of the March through June rally in July. I was wrong! the 2009 Bradley model still was right on with it's major trend call. In October I said here, that the next area of resistance was 1120-1136. We ended the year at 1128.
In 2010, we have a major planetary alignment that happens only every 80 years. Last time Uranus and Saturn aligned was in 1930, before that was in 1845, and before that was in 1772. Chaos/fear was the rule of thumb in each case. The 2010 Bradley model also says were in for a wild ride this year, starting this spring when Uranus and Saturn align. The model says, starting around March 1, we will see in a major trend change start, that will last to mid August(see above chart). In my opinion, if we rally into March then we'll see a huge sell-off sometime in spring / summer. If we sell off going into March, then we could have an explosive upside rally into spring/summer.Also interesting is in 2010 the Bradley model hits it's lowest point in seventy years(see the chart below courtesy of Rosecast.com) around August 10th. Hmmm
Posted by Jeff York at 12:52 PM