Sunday, January 31, 2010

S&P more to go

The S&P has more downside to go. This pullback has many traders trapped. 3 months of gains have been wiped out in 2 weeks. The gap at 1069 was filled last Friday, and the next open gaps below are at 1047 and 1042. February's monthly S1 pivot is at 1045 and 1095-1100 is now resistance. We haven't had a 10% correction since we hit bottom last March. That could bring the S&P to 1035. Stochastics are very oversold, which means we could get a bounce this coming week. Be careful, this falling knife is very sharp!

Silver chart

Silver has fallen down hard the past 2 weeks after doing a head and shoulders pattern. It's on the 200 ema now but look for the weekly 50 below at $15 for stronger support.

U.S. Dollar weekly 50

The U.S. dollar has had a big rally the past 2 months, now this rally is close to major resistance at the 50 week moving average(green dashed line on the chart above) at $80. It should stall there, and possibly come back down to retest the 200 day moving average at $78.50. The February R1 monthly pivot is at 80.65.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

This weeks support targets

Watch 1070 on the S&P and 9978 on the INDU(Dow Jones).

S&P has an open gap at 1070 and the weekly S1 pivot is 1071.

Dow Jones has a open gap at 9978 and the weekly S1 pivot is at 9977.

I love it when gaps and pivots line up :)

Gold on the 100 day

February Gold futures closed on the 100 day moving average. We should see a bounce but the trend is still down. The Yearly Pivot is at $1047.78 and previous resistance was 1033 which should be support.

Crude 200 day is close

March crude oil futures are close to the 200 day moving average(white line at $73.40). Look for support there. If that fails, then the Yearly Pivot point at $70.88 will be next support.

Monday, January 11, 2010

2010 yearly pivot points

Pivot point analysis for 2010 says the indexes should trade between:

Dow Jones yearly R1 pivot=11849....and yearly S1 pivot= 7738
S&P yearly R1 pivot=1275 and yearly S1=811
Gold Yearly R1=1283......yearly S1=857
Crude oil yearly R1=97.15.......yearly S1=47.41

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Bradley Model 2010

ppy New year all and I hope everyone is keeping warm! I'm made to the beach, where it is cold too. Before I talk about the new year, let's review the past year. I started this blog last March, the week after the S&P hit 666. Back then I thought that we could rally 50%(666+333) to 1000 on the S&P. Most thought I was crazy last March and April. Actually, I was looking for a bottom to form 1 month earlier in late January/February. The reason why is the 2009 Bradley model showed a big rally would start in January/February. Just like in 2008 the Bradley Model called for a big down move in 2008(we fell almost 50%). The 2009 model showed a trend change was going to start on July 15th, 2009. We started a 2000 point rally in July 2009, from 8000 to 10,000 on the Dow Jones.. I thought we would start a 50% pullback of the March through June rally in July. I was wrong! the 2009 Bradley model still was right on with it's major trend call. In October I said here, that the next area of resistance was 1120-1136. We ended the year at 1128.

In 2010, we have a major planetary alignment that happens only every 80 years. Last time Uranus and Saturn aligned was in 1930, before that was in 1845, and before that was in 1772. Chaos/fear was the rule of thumb in each case. The 2010 Bradley model also says were in for a wild ride this year, starting this spring when Uranus and Saturn align. The model says, starting around March 1, we will see in a major trend change start, that will last to mid August(see above chart). In my opinion, if we rally into March then we'll see a huge sell-off sometime in spring / summer. If we sell off going into March, then we could have an explosive upside rally into spring/summer.Also interesting is in 2010 the Bradley model hits it's lowest point in seventy years(see the chart below courtesy of around August 10th. Hmmm