Sunday, October 28, 2012

Trick or Treat? Full Moon reversal?

The Dow Jones Monthly S1 pivot point held as support last week and the 13050 open gap got filled. The 200 day moving average is just below and should provide short term support, along with the Full moon on Monday. Look for the open gap above at 13300(weekly R1 pivot point) as a possible dead cat bounce target, and 12975(weekly S1 pivot point) gap below for support.

Back on October 5th I said look for a big pullback on the NDX at the Yearly R3 pivot point(2870). The NDX now has pulled back 200+ pts. to the YR2 pivot point and the 200 day moving average. Price usually moves from Pivot point to pivot point ie: YR3 to YR2. Fridays action on the 200 day looks pretty bullish for the NDX for the coming week. Plus full moons are usually a buy signal. There are some big open gaps below at 2625 if the 200 day fails.

This chart shows how price reverse's around new moons and full moons. Not 100% exact, but odds favor it. (thanks to Omega for this chart)

Red arrow=New moon
Blue arrow=Full moon
                              H A P P Y   H A L L O W E E N

Monday, October 22, 2012

Make or break time

The Dow Jones and S&P indexes both closed last Friday on the 50dma and the old resistance level from last spring. Will it be support again, like it was last week, or will it break down?  If we break down next strong support/demand level is 13055(MS1) and open gap. We should know very today! If we hold we might rally back up to the open gap at 13550. Watch AAPL for a clue.


The 50 day broke this week after a double top at the yearly R3 pivot point. Look for a pullback to the 1400 open gap or monthly S1 at 1392. Open gap 1428 above.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

AAPL in trouble

Apple's stock price has not closed below the 4hr 200 ma this year until last Friday. This is not good. Watch for next support at the 200dma at $585 and now the 4hr 200 becomes resistance at $630.

update: Apple dipped below $600 last week and I'm watch the $585-$590 (200 day) for support.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

XLF possible HNS at YR1 and Cam H4 pivots

Looks like a head and shoulders(HNS) topping pattern in the making at the yearly R1 pivot point(YR1) and the Camarilla yearly H4 pivot point.

Monday, October 15, 2012

CL possible IHS setting up

I am seeing a possible inverse head and shoulders(IHS) pattern setting up on Nov crude oil futures.Watch $89.00- $89.50 this week for a right shoulder confirmation.

Update: IHS pattern was negated this past week.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Opex week

My ES double top call last week at the Yearly R3 pivot point was pretty good. We drop 5 days straight down to the 50day moving average. We probably need to consolidate this move. I'm looking for the 50 day to hold. This being Opex week, will we pin 1400 or 1450 or both?

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Apple investors chart

Apple's stock has had a big run since the market bottomed in March of 2009. Since then the stock has been riding the 10 month moving average up(I tweeted y'day the 8 month but the 10 month works too). If your an Apple investor, watch for a break below the 10 month moving average to take some profits. The monthly chart is also showing a possible "head and shoulders top" in the making. It may take another 3-12 months to make the right shoulder. In the meantime watch $585(10 month ma).

Friday, October 5, 2012

ES double top YR3

ES did a double top at the Yearly R3 pivot point today. Look for a big pullback next few weeks.
NDX testing YR3 too=bearish

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Yearly pivot points rock!

The above chart shows how yearly pivot points stopped the rallies and caught the crashes over the past 15 years.The all time high in 20007 was at YR2. The low in 2008 was on YS2. The low in 2009 was on YS1. In 2010 the low was on the yearly Camarilla L3. In 2011 the hi was YR1 and the low was YS1. Every major high or low was STOPPED at a year pivot point.  The 15 yr. $INDU and $SPX index charts look the same as this $OEX chart.

YR1=Yearly R1
YR2=yearly R2
YS1=yearly S1

Monday, October 1, 2012

Goog at yearly R2 pivot point

Google is testing the yearly R2 pivot point. Look for a pullback.

Caution this October

The Dec ES Yearly R3 pivot point is still resistance. The new monthly R1 pivot is at 1472. October is normally a green(up) month. It has only been down 3 of the past 11 years. But I still feel we need to retest the old resistance of 13300 and 1425. Maybe even retest 1400 before the rally kicks in again later in the month. It feels like the market wants to go to 1530 by the end of the year.