Saturday, January 9, 2010

Bradley Model 2010


ppy New year all and I hope everyone is keeping warm! I'm made to the beach, where it is cold too. Before I talk about the new year, let's review the past year. I started this blog last March, the week after the S&P hit 666. Back then I thought that we could rally 50%(666+333) to 1000 on the S&P. Most thought I was crazy last March and April. Actually, I was looking for a bottom to form 1 month earlier in late January/February. The reason why is the 2009 Bradley model showed a big rally would start in January/February. Just like in 2008 the Bradley Model called for a big down move in 2008(we fell almost 50%). The 2009 model showed a trend change was going to start on July 15th, 2009. We started a 2000 point rally in July 2009, from 8000 to 10,000 on the Dow Jones.. I thought we would start a 50% pullback of the March through June rally in July. I was wrong! the 2009 Bradley model still was right on with it's major trend call. In October I said here, that the next area of resistance was 1120-1136. We ended the year at 1128.

In 2010, we have a major planetary alignment that happens only every 80 years. Last time Uranus and Saturn aligned was in 1930, before that was in 1845, and before that was in 1772. Chaos/fear was the rule of thumb in each case. The 2010 Bradley model also says were in for a wild ride this year, starting this spring when Uranus and Saturn align. The model says, starting around March 1, we will see in a major trend change start, that will last to mid August(see above chart). In my opinion, if we rally into March then we'll see a huge sell-off sometime in spring / summer. If we sell off going into March, then we could have an explosive upside rally into spring/summer.Also interesting is in 2010 the Bradley model hits it's lowest point in seventy years(see the chart below courtesy of Rosecast.com) around August 10th. Hmmm


Monday, December 28, 2009

Happy New Year


I'll be traveling this week, to a warmer climate for the winter. I wish everyone a Happy and Healthy New Year.

Remember, I've been looking for S&P 1136 for the 2009 high.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Dollar rally

The U.S. Dollar hit the monthly R2 pivot last friday. With the 20 dma crossing the 50 dma on a daily chart, says the run should continue.

Natgas fills gap, kisses MR2 / weekly 50 and 76 fib

Natgas has had quite the move, since my buy call on monthly s1 at $4.44, a few weeks ago. Last week, natgas went up to the monthly R2 pivot(green line marked R2) @$5.85, the weekly 50 moving average(green line), filled an open gap(blue arrow) from last October and hit the 76.4% fib re-tracement. LOL Those confluences are resistance. Look for a pull back this week to maybe R1 / 50 dma(blue line) $5.33 - $5.50.

Gold 50 dma

Gold last week, was capped by the monthly Pivot(yellow line marked P) at 1141, and support was 1100. Gold has now pulled back 10% from the highs earlier in the month. Gold is making a bullish harami pattern, but needs confirmation. The short term trend is still down(long term is still up), but that may change this week if gold can break above the 20dma at 1156. I think gold will trade between 1156 and 1050. If 1120 breaks we go to 1156.....if 1085 breaks we go to 1050.