Saturday, January 9, 2010

Bradley Model 2010

ppy New year all and I hope everyone is keeping warm! I'm made to the beach, where it is cold too. Before I talk about the new year, let's review the past year. I started this blog last March, the week after the S&P hit 666. Back then I thought that we could rally 50%(666+333) to 1000 on the S&P. Most thought I was crazy last March and April. Actually, I was looking for a bottom to form 1 month earlier in late January/February. The reason why is the 2009 Bradley model showed a big rally would start in January/February. Just like in 2008 the Bradley Model called for a big down move in 2008(we fell almost 50%). The 2009 model showed a trend change was going to start on July 15th, 2009. We started a 2000 point rally in July 2009, from 8000 to 10,000 on the Dow Jones.. I thought we would start a 50% pullback of the March through June rally in July. I was wrong! the 2009 Bradley model still was right on with it's major trend call. In October I said here, that the next area of resistance was 1120-1136. We ended the year at 1128.

In 2010, we have a major planetary alignment that happens only every 80 years. Last time Uranus and Saturn aligned was in 1930, before that was in 1845, and before that was in 1772. Chaos/fear was the rule of thumb in each case. The 2010 Bradley model also says were in for a wild ride this year, starting this spring when Uranus and Saturn align. The model says, starting around March 1, we will see in a major trend change start, that will last to mid August(see above chart). In my opinion, if we rally into March then we'll see a huge sell-off sometime in spring / summer. If we sell off going into March, then we could have an explosive upside rally into spring/summer.Also interesting is in 2010 the Bradley model hits it's lowest point in seventy years(see the chart below courtesy of around August 10th. Hmmm