Happy New Year....I think

here is a sneak peek of what 2012 could look like. 2012 highs in March and then down hill the rest of the year? The Bradley Model turn dates are based on planetary alignments.

Santa Rally?

The S&P futures is finding some support on the Monthly Camarilla L3 pivot and the 50% fib off the Nov. lows. Will Santa rally the market week? I think we will as long as 1202 on the futures hold. A close above 1220 will be a short term buy signal......imo.

________________________________________________________

Happy Holiday's

Gold tests weekly 50

The 250 day moving average has caught the fall so far on Gold. If the 250 day breaks down, then next support is at $1460 on the 400 day(monthly 20).

NQ on Monthly L3 pivot

The March '12 NQ (ndx) futures contract found support this week on the monthly Camarilla L3 Pivot. Quants are now using the Camarilla pivots, Demarks pivots and the ever popular Classic Pivots. Pivot calcs are easy to program computers to buy and sell since all a pivot point is, is a math calculation based on the previous candle's Hi/Lo/Close. The low this week on the ESh2(S&P) was also on monthly L3.

Quad Opex week

This is Quad Opex week. Will we pin 12,500 or 12,000? both is my best guess.

New moon new month

update: 11/30/2011: todays 500 pt rally breakout should last until March 2012 per the 2012 Bradley Model. Look for buying opps on pullbacks on major moving averages. I think we can go back up to 1303 or 1350 by the end of the year.

__________________________________________________________________

We had a new moon last Friday, that normally is a sell signal as seen on the chart below. Will we rally hard on Monday(futs are up 275 pts. in pre as I write this) sell off again on Tuesday? Or is this gap up we are seeing this morning the start of a new rally into Xmas? We should know by the middle of this week.

Opex week.....more consolidation?

Last weeks pullback into the full moon was a great buying opportunity, as the chart below shows. This week is OPEX(options expiration). Will we pin the 1280 strike and a open gap there or the 1240 strike and an open gap? It looks like the market wants to break out of this 3 week consolidation. Until we do take out the 3 week highs or lows, look for more of the same. Watch the weekly and monthly pivots for support and resistance. Last week, the weekly R1 pivot was the high on SPY, DIA and QQQ, the weekly pp was support on last Wednesdays pullback.

sell on new moons and buy on full moons

Here is a chart from Omega, who is a trader in my chat room showing how the market reverses around new moons and full moons. The red arrows are new moons and the blue arrows are full moons. We have a full moon later this week.

Thanks Omega great chart!

Opex week

I was looking for a pullback last week and I was wrong. Maybe we'll get it this week. We are very far from the moving averages and need to let them catch up. Also this week is options expiration(opex). Look for pinning of strike prices all week. Will the Dow Jones pin 12k or 11k? Will the S&P pin 1200 or 1250?

Full moon reversal?

Per last weeks post, the S&P bounced off of 1075(monthly S1 pivot) and rallied 100 points. Up 5% off the lows. These bounces the past 2 months have been fast. So have the declines. No pullbacks to let you in. Makes you pay up, if you want to play. Every other week is up or down. Last week was up, my guess is this week will be down. We have a full moon too this week on Tuesday the 11th. I see resistance at 1200, which is the monthly R1 pivot and support is 1120.

Looking for a holiday rally to start soon

It's getting very negative out there. Some very smart traders(Tom Demarks, Doug Kass, etc) are looking for a big rally to start this month around the 1076 level on the S&P. As you can see on the chart, 1075 is the October monthly S1 pivot and a double bottom test of the August lows. If we close below 1075 then look for 1028-1038 for next support. I do agree that the 1075 level does look like a strong support zone. My plan is to be a buyer there with a 5 point stop loss. Until then short the rallies up to 1160.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

UPDATE: 10-4-11: we hit 1075 today......1173 (50 sma) is next resistance. we could rally going into 1st qtr of 2012. BUY THE DIPS!* As long as the S&P stays above 1075.

Silver YR4 to YPP?

This chart shows the high for the year was at the Yearly R4 Pivot back in May. Price always has a way of coming back to the Pivot Point(P), since that's where pricing is the most efficient. Since YR4 was the high this year, I'm looking for suuport on Silver at the Yearly P(YPP) at $27.42 ish.

update: Silver futures got down to $27.15 the other night :)

crude oil YR4 to YS2

Oil traders must be using yearly pivot points. The high this year on CL futes was at the Yearly R4 Pivot and the low this year is on the Yearly S2 Pivot. Knowing where support and resistance is, has it's advantages.

ES futures YR3 to YS3

With roll over happening this week, I decided to look at the new December ES chart. Wow. The Yearly R3(YR3) pivot nailed the high last spring and the Yearly S3(YS3) pivot caught the fall we had last month. Then we bounced up to the Yearly Pivot Point at 1219 before falling again late last week. If YS3 fails look for YS4 @1038. We may just trade between Ys3(1095) and YPP(1219) the rest of this year. Open gaps above at 1325 and 1250, and below at 1090 and 1049.

10 Year US Bond at YR4

The December 10 year bond futures chart is testing Yearly R4 pivot past few days. Will it be resistance?

update 9-13-11: ZN kissed the yr4 pivot yesterday and has started to pullback. It may make a head and shoulders top up here. I hope it does. More confirmation of a reversal.

Bear Flag Pattern

September is starting off just like August did. Ugly! The charts are showing a bear flag pattern. Which the name implies, look for more down side or more sideways consolidation from 10,750 to 11,750 range. Thats a big range! We have open gaps at 10725 and at 11900. If we do break down below 10,400 then look for next support at 9700, which is the 50% Fibbonanci Retracement from the 3/2009 low. The monthly s1 pivot is at 10,700 and monthly s2 is at 9800. Monthly r1 is at 12,400 for you perma bulls. I still believe we have started a new bear market, and that it will be ugly for a few years.

start of a new bear market?

For the past 15+ years, whenever the S&P broke below the monthly 20 sma(yellow line), signaled that we are entering a bear Market. When the price went above the monthly 20 sma , we where back in a bull market. Last week, the price on the S&P 500 went below the monthly 20 sma. We are now back in a Bear market. Sell rallies as long as the S&P stays below 1200 on a monthly close.

head and shoulders pattern rules

I posted this chart a few weeks ago on www.Freestockcharts.com. Last summer's sell off ended with an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This summers sell off started with a head and shoulders pattern. Head and shoulders is the strongest reversal pattern in trading!

not looking pretty

My target of 1177 that I wrote about in early June was hit last week. The head and shoulders top I've been writing about for over a month is now playing out with the break of the neckline at 1260. Right shoulders are very fast moves, as we've seen the past 10days. The neckline break now puts us back into a bear market. I'm looking for 1st. support at 11050 which is the yearly Pivot Point. This free fall we've been in started at the yearly R2 Pivot. So it makes sense for price to pullback to the pivot point after testing the R2 pivot. We probably will go back up sometime and retest that old support of 1260ish. But the 2.5 year rally is now over. The highs we had this year could last for a few years.

update: 8/9/2011: market blew thru those targets. Next support is 10,475 on the Dow, 1100 on the S&P and 2000 on the NDX

Summer target was hit

from June 6th 2011

Double Top at Yearly R2

Last week the Dow Jones did a double top at the yearly R2 pivot. I'm looking for a pullback to 12k/200dma/Ms1.


update 8/1/2011: I'm now looking for a pullback to the yearly pp at 11050

Head and shoulders top

This weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows a head and shoulders top. This is a reversal pattern. Look for a big pullback on this right shoulder.

A rookie traders mind

Don't let this be YOU! Learn to buy support and sell resistance!

IHS on MS2

Textbook 3 day inverted head and shoulders(IHS) pattern on the monthly S2 pivot(MS2).

Full Moon and Quad Witching week

This week is Quad Expiration week. We should see a bounce off the monthly S2 pivots. The S&P could pin 1250 and 1300 strike prices. Plus we have a Full Moon this week. We usually get short term reversals during full moons.

short term downside targets

The summer sell off continues. We have several open gaps below that I am using as short term targets. PLUS Quad Expiration next week, we should see 12,000 get pinned very soon. Longer term(by the end of summer), I am looking for the Dow Jones to be at 11,000 or less, and 1177 on the S&P 500.

no change

The reason I have not updated this bog is there is no change from my earlier post of " come May and Go Away". I'm looking for a big pullback this summer. The yearly R pivots stopped the rally and I'm looking for a pullback to the Yearly Pivot point on the S&P to 1177 and 11k on the Dow.

I have been posting more on Freestockcharts.com since it's easier for me.

Look me up under friend name: mtn.guy

Come May go away

Come May and go away is an old expression on wall street. The Dow Jones is very close to the yearly R2 pivot point at 12,946. Lock in profits now!

NDX Yr1

the NDX is back testing the yearly R1 pivot and open gap at 2400. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are also testing there YR1 pivots too. Be careful with NEW LONG Positions up here!

Opex week

This week is Opex week(options expiration) and I'm looking for the S&P to fill the 1320 gap below, before we retest the Feb. highs at 1343 / Yearly R1 Pivot Point.

end of month

I'm looking for a weak begining to this week, and then a little month end rally at the end of this week.

U.S. Dollar testing Yearly S1 pivot

U.S. Dollar futures are very close to the yearly S1 Pivot at $75.52(purple line marked s1). I'm looking for support there and a rally off the yearly S1 pivot. I'll use a close below $75 as my stop. Risking only .55 cents.

CSCO

Cisco(CSCO) high this year was at the Yearly Pivot Pivot(see white circle) and fell to the low on the Yearly S1 Pivot(see white circle). CSCO announced a first time dividend today. Looking for CSCO to go higher.

S&P intraday pivots

The S&P today went from the S1 pivot, down to the S2 Pivot at 1249 and bounced back up to the S1 Pivot for 16 points each way.

Pivot Power

Amazing how the Yearly R1 pivot(S&P 1343) and the 2011 Bradley Model's major turn date on Feb.17th has played out.

see posting below

Gold MR1 pivot

Gold futures went up to the Monthly R1 Pivot(white circle on the top of the chart) and now has pulled back to the 20dma(yellow line). Look for a little bounce here off the 20dma and retest the 8dma(1420) before going down to test the Monthly Pivot Point(Mpp) at 1385 and open gap there. Buy the dips as long as the 150 dma holds (1350).

UPDATE 3/15

Gold hit the MPP(1385) this morning ....PIVOT POWER!

again no change

I still don't see anything in the charts that change my opinion. Look for more downside on the S&P and the Dow this week. Looking for a test of the 50dma.

Watching
Silver YR1 pivot is 35.50 -36.50
Oil Yr2 pivot is 108.45

no change

per my post last week, I see no change this week. I believe this down trend will continue until early summer, per the 2011 Bradley Model.

S&P @YR1

Last Friday, the S&P 500 went right up to the Yearly R1 Pivot, gave it a little Valentine's kiss and is now starting the pullback I have been looking for. How ironic that the 2011 Bradley Model predicted a change in trend during this same time period. Will the crisis in the middle east put a lid on this rally? Will higher gasoline costs slow down the recovery in the USA? and worldwide? Will Saudi Arabia or China be next for protests? There is a lot of uncertainty right now. Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty. Hedge your positions or take some profits off.

Happy Valentine's Day...Will u b my sweetheart?

The Dow Jones tested it's Yearly R1 Pivot(12,263) late last week and the S&P is getting close to it's Yearly R1 Pivot(purple line marked R1) at 1343. Last year, the indexes hit their YR1 pivots in late April and then had a 20% pullback into the July Lows. Again....be very careful up here!!

P.S. the NDX YR1 Pivot is 2404.... look what happened last year at YR1.

Look how much the market fell after hitting YR1 last year.

Plus we have a Major Bradley Model turning date this week

Yearly R1 pivot

I am looking for a test of the Yearly R1 Pivot(purple line marked R1) on the Dow Jones at 12,267 before we start a 10%+ correction. I am NOT looking for new long postions up here. Volume has been going down as the market is going up. That's a warning signal!

the Correction has started

The correction I wrote about last week is now under way. Fridays big down day was the start and should last a few weeks. The weekly R2 pivot was the high last week and told me not to look for new long positions. The Dow Transports break down over a week ago was the warning signal. I wrote about that on http://www.freestockcharts.com/ . This week look for resistance at 11900-11950 and first support at 11750 then 11500.

Update: 2/1/2011: hmmm I maybe wrong

Long in the tooth

This rally that started in early September seems to be getting long in the tooth. The Dow Transports pulled backed last week but the Dow Industrials have not. I think we see a 10% correction soon(30days). This week look for 1300 on the S&P and 12000 on the Dow for resistance.

Gaps

The above chart shows how the NQ furures(NDX) moves up and down to fill the open gaps(purple lines) on RTH/USE time.

Full moon

On Full Moons(this Wednesday), we usually see a short term reversal. This is OPEX week(options expiration). We should see support at 11500 and resistance at 12000 strike price this week. S&P 500 should see the 1300 strike should get pinned this week.

get well soon....Mr. Jobs!

Dow Jones Monthly R1 pivot 11755

I'm watching the Monthly R1(MR1) pivot(green line marked R1) for resistance at 11755 on the Dow Jones this week. 1285 is the S&P 500's MR1 pivot. Support comes in at 11575 on the 20dma(yellow line) and open gap there from 12/31.

Day-Traders love pivots

Intraday pivot points show day traders where the best odds are for intraday price reversals. Pivot Points define the days trading range(s1 -r1, s2-r1, etc.) . Today, the NQ(NDX) went from the R1 pivot, to the S1 pivot, back up to the R1 pivot, and back down to the S1 pivot....see the white circles on the charts on the green pivot lines. Pivot ping pong? Each 10 pt. price swing is worth $200 per contract.

2011 Yearly Pivot Points

2011 Pivot Point Analysis:

S&P 500 =Yearly R1 Pivot(YR1) at 1343 and the Yearly S1 Pivot(YS1) at 1091. The Yearly Pivot Point(YPP) is at 1176. YR2=1427 and YS2=925

Dow Jones= YR1 pivot at 12263 and YS1 @10252. The YPP is at 10938.
YR2= 12950 and YS2=8927.

NDX= YR1 pivot=2205 and YS1=1866. The YPP=2052

Gold's = YR1 pivot is 1555 and YS1 is 1167 and the YPP=1300. YR2=1667 and YS2=911.

Crude Oil's= YR1 pivot=99.95 and YS1=75.00. YPP=83.54. YR2=108.45 and YS2=58.65

the R1/S1 pivots have 70+% odds and the R2/S2 pivots odds are in the 80+%

2011 Bradley Model

The 2011 Bradley Model is calling for another roller coaster year. There will be a big move starting in February and lasting through July. Will it be up or down? The model only predicts turning dates, not the direction. The turning dates are based on certain planetary alignments. It is uncanny accurate...IMO. Last years model showed the lowest reading ever and what happened? The Dow Jones dropped 1000 points in 1 day. The most ever on record! In 2007 the model called for the markets to top out on Oct 16th.....it topped on October 11th. The 2008 model showed a major new trend would start and in 2008 the market dropped almost 50%. In 2009 it showed another major new trend and the market bottomed in March and then it rallied(up 60%) for the rest of the year. We should know the direction on the 2011 model by March 1, 2011.