Tuesday, May 4, 2010

10% correction started?

In 1980, 1990, and in 2000, all those years that ended with a zero "0", there was a 10%+ mid year correction. I believe we are seeing the beginning of 2010's mid year correction. We tested the 50dma(1168) today, per my call a few days ago. A close below the 50dma(1168 on the S&P), will spell trouble down to the 150dma (1110).

I've been writing about some warning signs the past few weeks.
1) in the "danger zone" with 80%+ of stocks trading above their 50 dma.
2) June Index futures contracts, all at the Yearly R1 or R2 pivots.
3) the 61.8% Fibonacci re-tracement area...aka the "Ambush Zone".
4) Big price swings ie: we had 5 days of triple digit up/down days very close to each other = topping action.

These warning signals told us NOT to look for new long positions, but to start raising cash. Professional traders buy support and sell resistance. We hit major resistance at the Yearly R Pivots!

Is the rally over? yes, the big down volume is telling us the smart/big money is pulling out. They maybe be back buying in a couple of days, weeks or months.