Sunday, April 25, 2010

Follow the Yellow Brick Road

When the good witch told Dorothy to "Follow the yellow brick road", in the Wizard of Oz, she must have meant the 20 day moving average (yellow line on the chart above). The S&P has not closed below the 20dma(yellow line) since the major Bradley Model turn date on March 1st. Smart money bought the pullback last week on the 20 dma at 1188. With the end of the month this week, we should see the Monthly R2 pivot hit at 1225, unless we get a full moon reversal back down to 1188. Use a close below the 20 dma(yellow line), as your exit plan on short term trades.

P.S. we are still in the danger zone with 80%+ of stocks above their 50 day moving average. We are also close to the 61.8% retracement fib, from the 2007 high to 2009 lows @1230ish.