on Holiday

I'm on Holiday this week.

Happy New Year

P.S. next week I'll talk about the 2011 Bradley Model

at Monthly R2

The S&P ran into resistance last week at the Monthly R2 pivot(green line marked R2). A breakout above that will take us to the yearly r1 pivot at 1275. I have to stay bullish as long as we stay above the daily 8dma at 1230. Maybe R2 holds and we get a little pullback this week.

Quad Expiration week

This week the S&P will be looking for strike prices to pin. Watch 1250(wr2) on the upside and 1220(ws1) on the downside support.

ws or wr=weekly support pivot or weekly resistance pivot

Government Motors

I like this chart pattern that GM is making. The $33 opening IPO price held and last week did a gap "UP" open. The gap was filled last Friday on the 8dma and closed on the Monthly Pivot Point. As long as $34 holds it looks bullish to me.

I was wrong on this one!

Last January's predictions

Per my analysys from last January. Looks like we will hit the Yr1 Pivots on the Dow Jones and S&P.

January 11, 2010

Dowjones looking higher

The Dow broke to the downside early last week and then reversed to breakout to the upside. The 20dma is now support at 11200 and resistance is the November Highs at 11450-11500.

Eur.usd at MPP and 20dma

The Euro is testing the Monthly Pivot point(mpp) and just above that is the 20dma is at 1.3452. I'm looking for a test of the 20dma and then a little pullback.

looking for a breakout

The 20dma has been resistance and the 50 dma has been support as per my past postings. I am looking for a move out of this consolidation we've been in for 2 weeks. It could be up or down. Watch 11200 and 10975 for the direction.

Happy Thanksgiving

Watch for support on the 50dma and resistance at the 20dma this week. Travel safe and have a Happy Thanksgiving.

watching the 20dma

I'm watching the 20dma (1195 on the S&P)this week for support. A close below the 20dma will take it down to old Resistance(now support) at 1175-1180. Resistance comes in at 1213 this week.

under the weather

I am sorry for no updates, I have pneumonia the past few weeks. In the meantime, don't fight the Fed.

peeps r still shorting

I have joined several trading groups in my area, and I hear people saying "this market is going to crash any day. I'm adding to my shorts everyday. There is no logical reason the market should be up. Housing sucks, unemployment sucks, Obama doesn't know what he's doing, Obama care will BK this country, no technical reason we should be rallying, no fundamental reason we should be rallying, any day now we are going to crash big time". I also have noticed most of these shorts/doomsayers are Republicans(G.O.P.). They may win the house back in November, but there getting their ass kicked in the stock market. I just love taking their money. :) Thanks

This week: Don't fight the trend. My best trades have been buying the dips on the daily 8ema. or S pivot

First level of Support is 11,000 and resistance is 11250.

Silver Yearly R2 pivot stopped the run

The silver etf SLV ran into the Yearly R2 Pivot(purple line marked r2 @blue circle). R2 Pivots have a 85%+ odds, that will be the highs 4 2010. I'm watching the 8dma(light grey line) to see if it will become resistance now. Support should be at the 20dma(yellow line) and Monthly R1 pivot(green line marked R1) @$22.31.

USD @ MS1

The US Dollar Index looks like a short term bottom on the Monthly S1 Pivot. Next Resistance is at 78.25 - 78.50. Support is at 77.25.

Dec Gold @ YR2

December Gold is testing the Yearly R2 Pivot. I also noticed on Freestockcharts.com that Silver(XSLV) kissed the YR2 Pivot @ $25.

Monthly R1 pivot resistance

The Dow and S&P are running into resistance at the monthly R1 Pivot(blue circle). Look for a pullback to the 20 dma or sideways consolidation this week.

Opex week

We have October OPtions EXpiration(Opex) this week. and earnings season starts. It should be a whippy week. The Dow Jones is pinning the 11,000 strike. The S&P should pullback and pin the 1150 strike this week. I think we'll trade between 1150 and 1175 possibly 1200 this week.

update:

the Monthly R1 Pivot on the INDU =11116 will be resistance this week

Consolidation

A correction can be either in Price or in Time. Last week the markets took a break and went sideways. The 10875 level on the Dow Jones has been strong resistance, as per the chart above showed it would be. Is the market running out of steam or just taking a break to let the 20dma(yellow line @10650) catch up? Or does the market drop down to the 20dma and open gap at 10666? Until we get a strong reversal/sell signal, keep buying the opening dips. This week, look for resistance at 10942 and then at 11056. Support this week comes in at 10650 and then at 10500.

One of my $DJI charts is showing the Dow Jones low in July and for 2010 was on the Yearly S1 Pivot(lower blue circle). It also shows the April high was at the Yearly R2 pivot(blue circle). Now the Dow is hitting it's head back at the Yearly R1 Pivot(top blue circle) at 10861. Do ya think smart money was selling in April at the YR2 Pivot, then buying at the YS1 Pivot and now is selling here @the YR1 Pivot? I do. I'm looking for a 4-5% pullback sometime in October.

Dow 11,000

What a rally! Back in August all the market pro's on tv and in the news paper, where calling for a ugly September, and some even said we'd see the stock market crash. In Late August the bull bear ratio was at the most bearish it had been since 2008. Here is a perfect example why you should NOT TRADE what you read or hear. My trading motto is: "Trade what you see(on the charts), and not what you think, hear or read!"

September 1st. we opened at 10,000 and we will end the month at 11,000. This coming week, I am looking for the weekly R2 pivot at 11035(10975 on the YM futs) on the Dow Jones to get tested. Support this week is at the 8dma @10670(and an open gap). December YM futs Monthly R2 pivot is at 10910. We should see a consolidation phase start soon.

you heard it here first

On September 2nd I said we had a gap up buy signal. I hope you all listened to my advise.

S&P up 100 pts in 15 trading days
Dow Jones up 1000 pts in 15 trading days
NDX up 250 pts. in 15 trading days

Take some profits as we have a Full Moon coming up later this week. We usually get a reversal during a full moon. Sometimes they are short term(2-5 days) reversals and sometimes there longer term(3 weeks +) like last months.

Full Moon reversal later this week?

Last week most asset classes (except for bonds) went higher into quad expiration as I planned. We are on the verge of something big. Will it be a rip roaring rally higher or will it be a "fake out" again like in June and August? I think we are going to see 11,000 or 10,000 very soon. We may need to consolidate last weeks gains this week. The Dow Jones has an open gap from the August high's at 10700. I'm looking for that to get filled this week. Then we have the Harvest Full Moon on Thursday. This 3 week rally started on the Full Moon in August. Will it end on the Full Moon in September? This week, look for 1st resistance at 10700 then at 11000 (Mr2 pivot). 1st support is at 10500 then the open gaps at 10300 and 10000. Stochastics are overbought so be careful this week.

Interesting read on The Harvest Moon and the Seeds of our Faith.

Triple witching / Quad Ex week

This week is Quad / Triple witching week. Look for strike prices to get pinned all week. Last week the S&P and the Dow Jones consolidated the previous weeks big rally. This week look for that rally to continue. First resistance this week are the open gaps at 10615 and 1120 on the S&P, and 1916 on the NDX. Above those are more open gaps at the 10700 strike price and 1128 on the S&P. The Monthly R1 pivot should be support this week. I'll get some charts up soon.

Dec NQ yearly pivots

I just rolled over to the December 2010 contract on the NQ(NDX). My first impression of the chart was "wow, the yearly pivot points(purple lines marked S1, P, R1, R2, R3) are working perfectly, on showing where support and resistance is". Professional NDX traders/market makers are using the the Yearly Pivots to buy and sell. You can see it on the chart(blue circles)!

ym mid trade

I bot the YM pull back on the intraday mid(yellow line) at 10426 and sold at the r2 pivot @10455 for a quick scalp.

Shorty is still trapped

As per last weeks posting, the market did exactly as MPG said it would do. I hope your all profiting from this! This week, the S&P futures is close to the monthly R1 pivot @1108. That could be resistance for this week and we should see a little pullback or some sideways consolidation of last weeks gains. If not, look for the gaps at 1120 and 10650 to get filled. Longer term(3 months) we are still in the 1040 - 1130 trading range. I do expect a breakout of that range soon. This week watch 1108(MR1) on the S&P futures and 10500 on the Dow for resistance. Support is at 1075(MPP) and 10200(MPP). Also interesting is we have a new moon on Wednesday. This past June, July and August, the highs for the month where on the new moon. And the lows for those months where on the full moon. This months full moon is on 9/23. Or will the S&P futures pin the Yearly R1 pivot at 1135(1040 was the Yearly S1 pivot)? Hmmm

Gap up buy signal

The Dow Jones gaped up yesterday, off the Yearly Pivot Point(purple line marked P and blue arrow) at 9950, trapping the shorts. The S&P did the same on the Yearly S1 Pivot at 1040(per Sunday's blog). We are back on a buy the dips buy signal, as long as 10200 holds. That's about the middle of yesterdays big up candle. The 20dma above is resistance at 10300. The Monthly PP is at 10219, which should be support now, and the Monthly R1 pivot is at 10525, which is next resistance. Also use the 8ema as the trend line. This trend should last to the new moon on Sept. 9th.. Open gaps/targets above are at 10415, 10650, 10700(see blue circles). A close below 10200 will bring us back down to the 10,000 gap.

Wheat Yearly Pivot stops the run

Wheat futures ran into the Year R4 Pivot(see blue circle) to the penny! I'm looking for wheat futures to pullback to 600 (Yearly pivot and 50 dma).

Bond rally needs a rest

The TBT etf is showing a short term buy signal. The TBT could go back up to $34-$35 and fill some gaps and test the 20dma. I'm long TBT Sept calls and I'm using a close below $31 as my stop loss. It's a tight stop becuase picking bottoms is dangerous.

The wild ride continues

The S&P last week, went down to 1040, the old support level from last June. This month, the S&P's & Dow Jones high was on the New Moon and the low(so far) was on the Full Moon. As you can see on the chart above, 1040 is the Yearly S1 pivot on the S&P emini futures September contract. Also, it is making an inverted head and shoulders pattern at 1040. That's the line in the sand. This week I'm looking for resistance at 1076(20dma) - 1085(weekly R1 pivot and 50dma) and support at the weekly S1 pivot @ 1040. This week my plan is to buy pullbacks as long as we stay above 1060(Weekly pivot). If 1040 breaks down then look for support at the 400/500dma at 1010-1020.

Intel yearly pivots working

Intel's high this year was in April at the Yearly R1 pivot(blue circle). Today Intel bounced off the Yearly Pivot Point(blue arrow). Coincidence? NOT

INTC should bounce here... use $18 as a stop loss.

UPDATE:

$18 broke yesterday....$15 probably next support. $14.35 is yearly S1.

Full moon reversal?

The Dow Jones and S&P both broke their 50dma last week. The 1064 gap on the S&P was filled Friday. In my opinion, this chart pattern above, does not look bullish. The right shoulder failed at 10700. Now it looks like we started a wave 3 down last Thursday, after doing a wave 2 consolidation earlier last week. Stochtastics are in the oversold area, so we may rally this week. We also have a Full Moon which usually bings a short term reversal. Look for support at 10,000 and 1040 this week.

Crude oil close to bottom of the channel

Look for crude oil to find support $73-74. Also the MS1pivot(green line S1) is there. MR1 was the high for the month.

UPDATE:

Crude broke the $73 support level. Next support is at the Ms2 pivot @$69.28

Gold HNS pattern

Gold is making a head and shoulders(HNS) pattern(white circles). I'm watching the 1250 area for a right shoulder failure.

eur/usd 200dma - 50dma

The Eur.usd ran into the 200dma last week and today is bouncing off the 50dma. Amazing how simple moving averages can show where resistance and support is. Look for a re-test of the 20dma at 1.3050

10200 needs to hold

Is this the start of a big move? The Dow / futures needs to hold the 50 dma if the market has any chance of a rally.This is options expiration week(OPEX), and we will see the dow pin the 10500 strike and/or the 10,000 strike by Friday.

Golds 50dma next res

Last week I said "look for Gold to go up to $1200". It did that and then some. This week I'm looking for resistance at the 50dma and Wr1 pivot between 1216 - 1218. Support comes in at the 20dma(1192) and the Mpp(1197).

We are setting up for a big move

Last weeks high on the S&P futures, was exactly at the Weekly R1 Pivot @1118. This coming weeks WR1 pivot is at 1117 and WS1 is at 1081. The chart shows we are setting up for a BIG MOVE any day now. Since we are trading above the 20dma I have to be bullish short term. A close above 1128 will signal a re-test of this years April's high's. A close below WS1/20dma(1080) and I'll put the bear suit back on.

Gold looking for $1200

December Gold futures did a 3day IHS on the 150dma and the WS2 pivot last week. It looks like gold made a short term trend change and wants to test the $1200 area / 20 dma. If 1160 breaks then next support is at the 200dma @ 1150.

stocks I'm watching this week

TIVO - 50dma breakout

YHOO - hammer reversal signal

BPZ - possible trend change now that it's above the 20dma

BWEN - back above the 20 and 50 dma's

F - looking for resistance at $13.10 Monthly R2

and several more picks on www.freestockcharts.com under the friends name "mtn.guy"

S&P 200dma next

The S&P 500 had a nice rally last week off the 20dma(yellow line). Look for a possible full moon reversal on Monday. The high in June was on the full moon! Look for resistance at the 200dma(white line @1113) or the 100dma(dk. blue line @1128). The 50dma(1084) needs to hold this week. A close above 1128(10600 on the Dow) and we have a new bull market!

Merriman has another excellent free commentary this week.

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-july-26,-2010/

From Merriman last weekend

"So let me say it really simply. We are entering a time band of perhaps the most powerful geocosmics signatures of a lifetime. We’ve never seen anything quite like what we are about to witness in the next month. So we don’t really know what to expect, except the unexpected. Normally we might think the Saturn-Uranus opposition would be a crash, and it might be. The previous four times in this series, it has correlated with a crest (not a trough), and after three of those times, the DJIA fell over 1500 points within the next 3-6 weeks. If you want to trade, you have to be nimble and ready to reverse quickly, perhaps on an almost daily schedule. If you cannot handle the stress of risk, stay out and watch this cosmically historical pattern unfold, and watch with amazement at the types of human activities and financial market movements that will likely unfold – assuming they don’t do the unexpected and absolutely nothing of note happens."

full article

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-ciomments-for-the-week-beginning-july-19,-2010/

Short term sell sig negated

Last Friday's big down day told us the short term up trend(rally) has stopped, and we are now on a short term sell signal. Last week, the Dow Jones went up to the 200dma(white line) and failed. Now it has pulled back to the 20dma(yellow line). There is an open gap at approx. 10,020 that looks to be filled at todays open. This week, support comes in at 9700-9800 and resistance is at 10200-10300. We are getting close to the 2010 Bradley Model 80 year low reading on August 10th., so be defensive. It could get ugly!

UPDATE: The Dow jones filled the open gap today @10k and took off to the upside. Next closest open gap is at 10355 and the 200dma is @10400. Look for support @10100(20dma). The short term sell signal is now negated. Buy the dips(short term trade) as long as the 20dma holds @10100.

a little more upside for OPEX

It's options expiration week(OPEX). What a rally the market had last week. Stochastics are still pointing up, so we should continue up to the 50dma(bluse line)@10300 or 200 dma(white line)@10400. Support comes in on pullbacks to 10k. I'll be out of town until 7/20.

August Crude oil on YS1

August Crude oil futures, are bouncing off the Yearly S1 pivot(purple line marked S1) at $71.20. That seems to be a floor for now. Look for a pop back up to possibly $75-$76 for a short term trade. A close below 70.85(MS1) is the stop.

Way oversold

It has been a brutal 2 weeks for investors. The Dow Jones has dropped 1000 pts. in the past 10 trading days(2weeks). The failure at the 50 dma(blue line) on 6/21, told traders to look for a new low for the year. And that's exactly what happened. The market made a new low for 2010 last week. Now stochastics are oversold at 6, and the 8 dma is way up at 10k. The market needs to consolidate the big drop it made the past 2 weeks. It does it by either going sideways, to let the moving averages catch up, or by rally up to them and/ or open gaps above. This week I'm looking for resistance at 10050(Monthly Pivot point) and support at 9500(monthly S1 pivot). We are not out of the woods just yet. There's more downside to come!

1040 support Broke

On May 31st. I wrote that I thought the S&P futures would test 1019 sometime in June. June ended today on the lows for the month at 1024. I was close! Now I'm looking for 977 to 952 in July. On the Dow Jones, I'm looking for a 9000 test sometime in July. We are quickly coming into the August 10th Bradley date. The lowest reading in the past 80 years happens on that date. Look for extreme bearish sentiment and fear in late July / early August.

mixed signals

Last week the Dow Jones went from the daily 50dma(blue line) to the weekly 50dma(green line). On the charts of the Dow and S&P, I am getting mixed signals on which direction the market will go this coming week. Here is the latest Dow chart.

1) on a 3 month chart, the Dow is making a right shoulder on a inverted head and shoulders pattern, on the weekly 50dma. This usually is a bullish pattern.

2) Last Thursday/Friday could be a bullish harami pattern on the weekly 50dma, but it was below the daily 20dma.

3) There are open gaps at 9900 and at 10300. Maybe both get filled this week?

4) Stochastic are still pointing down and have more room to go until there oversold.

Quad Opex week

I'm out of town until 6/24(back in CO). We have a Quad expiration this Friday. This week I'm looking for the Dow Jones to go UP to 10365, and possibly pin the 10500 strike. On the DOWN side look for support at 10,000 first and then 9900. These numbers line up with the weekly pivots.Mypivots.com A close above 10365 and we could be back into a bull market mode short term.

On the S&P futures chart above, we see that the September contract found support on the Yearly S1 pivot(blue circles on the bottom of the chart on the purple line marked S1) at 1040. This week look for a test of 1105(YPP) and maybe even YR1 @ 1135.

Gold Yearly R1 Pivot

August Gold futures did a double top at the Yearly R1 Pivot(blue circles on R1). There is a 70% chance that the 2010 high's are in on gold. There is a 30% chance that gold will go higher to $1300. Do you feel lucky?

Put your crash helmets on

Wow......what an ugly day last Friday was. The Dow Jones was down 323 pts on heavy volume. The Trin closed the day at 14. I have never seen the Trin that high. My charts, my gut and the 2010 Bradley Model are telling me, we have much more downside to go. We may get a relief rally this coming week or a another crash. The 2010 Bradley Model says this downtrend will last until August 10, 2010. The next area of support for the Dow Jones this week is at 9550 and resistance is at 10,100. The Fed may try to intervene this week, but I don't know what more they can do. Adding more debt is like throwing gasoline on a burning fire. It will only make the situation worse!

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-june-7,-2010/

Natgas lows are in for 2010

As I wrote last month, Natgas has bottomed on the Yearly S2 pivot with a inverted head and shoulders pattern(blue circles on the bottom of the chart). I'm looking for a BIG run up in Natgas into this fall. Also, the prediction of an active hurricane season will help move price higher. UNG is the Natags ETF if you don't want to trade the futures. I'm long the UNG Oct $9 calls at $.33 cents, with a $.25 cent stop loss. I'll be moving my stop loss up to break even today(.33). I'm currently up 90% on this trade in 1 week.

S&P for 6/1/2010

Big price swings are a traders dream. This week I'm looking for the S&P to trade between 1047 and 1117. I still feel the S&P will go down to the Year Pivot Point at 1019 and test it, in June. The Monthly S1 pivot is at 1017, so there is a confluence of pivots points down there, which means strong support, because professional traders in the pit use pivots.

Looking for an End of Month rally

I'm looking for the markets to rally the next several days, as we have end of month window dressing and next week is a new month with new 401K money being put to work. I'm looking for a bounce the 200dma(10275) and maybe the 20dma(10550 +/-).

Buy signal negated overnight

The Dow futures broke 10040 overnight and negated the short term buy signal. As I write this, the futures are down 200 pts. in pre market. Next support is at 9622. There is the weekly s1 Pivot at 9800 that may hold today. We are also testing the February lows. We are very oversold and due for a bounce. The 2010 Bradley Model I've written about, shows a fast deep decline into August 10th. The 2010 model goes down to it's lowest reading in 80 years(when the great depression started). Dow 9000(monthly 200 moving average), is the 50% Fibonacci retracement off the March 2009 low. It's going to be a long UGLY summer for equities.

Pivot Power

Here is a great example of how powerful Pivots Points are. The NDX futures high in April was at the Yearly R1 Pivot(blue circle on the top of the chart on the purple line marked R1). Then it fell fast and hard to the the Monthly S4 Pivot(bottom of chart blue arrow on green line S4). Using a combination of different Pivot Points(yearly, monthly, weekly), my charts show me where the best odds are for market tops and bottoms......... Support and Resistance. This is PIVOT POWER! This is the best tool for trading!

Dow Jones Yearly R2 (YR2) to Yearly Pivot(YPP)

The Dow Jones Futures on the chart above, went from a high last month at the Yearly R2 Pivot, then down to the Yearly Pivot Point last Friday. Pivots show me where to look for market tops and bottoms. Support and Resistance! Now I am seeing a buy signal on the Yearly Pivot at 10040(purple line marked P). The Dow needs to close above 10040 or I will be wrong. I think we bounce back up to 10500 - 10800, and then another crash! We could rally into June 4th. If we break 10040 then next support comes in at 9622 below. Get use to BIG WILD PRICE SWING action. It's just getting started! It is going to be an ugly summer in the stock market. Make sure you have protection on ALL long positions or raise cash on rally's.

short term Buy Signal

It's almost 12 noon EST on Friday and the indexes went down to their 50 week(daily 250) moving averages and are bouncing off them. If we close in the green today, it will give a buy signal short term. Maybe 4-6%.

Weekly 50 next major support?

I'm watching the weekly 50dma(daily 250dma) for support and a short term buy signal.

Dow Jones= 9935

S&P= 1068

NDX=1750

Targets using Pivot analysis

The S&P and NDX June Futures high for 2010 so far is the Yearly R1 Pivot(blue circle). Now we should go down and test support at the Yearly Pivot Point at 1019(purple line and blue arrow). Using Pivot Point analysis, I'm looking for the S&P June futures, to test the YPP(yearly pivot point) by the June Expiration on 6/18. On the NDX June futures, look for a test/support @1680.

Silver and oil

Silver(salmon color line) on the chart above, has been following oil for the past several years. Now that Oil(green color line) has fallen hard, will silver fall hard soon too?

Crude oil yearly pivots

July crude oil futures hit the Yearly R1 Pivot(see arrow and purple marked R1) and now I'm looking for the Yearly S1 Pivot(blue circle at purple line marked S1) at $70.50 for support on the July contract. PIVOT POWER!

Gold futures are close to Yearly R1

Gold last week made new all time highs. The June futures contracts are getting close to the Yearly R1 Pivot @$1261(purple line marked R1). On a continuous chart Yearly R1 Pivot is $1282. Longs be careful up here and maybe book some profits at the YR1 pivot.

watching the 200dma for support

Last week I said, to look for a retest of the 50dma and that's exactly what the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq did. This week I'm looking for the 200dma at 1090. Resistance comes in above at 1145 and then at 1173.

Crude oil on Yearly PP

June oil futures keeps bouncing of the Yearly Pivot(purple line marked P) at $75.35. Good risk/reward there for a long.

Natty yearly S2 pivot holds again

June Natgas futures keeps finding buyers(support), on the yearly S2 pivot(purple line marked S2). I still think the low for natty is in for 2010. I'll be wrong with a close below YS2.