Sunday, October 4, 2009

S&P is the top in?

The S&P 500 has run into major resistance at the yearly R1 pivot(purple line marked R1) at 1073/1074. And, it has made a Head and Shoulders pattern up there(see blue arrows at top of chart). Remember, back in early March, the S&P lows where at the yearly S1 pivot. It's normal to see a S1 to R1 move. We see it everyday with daily pivots(ie: see Euro trade post from 10/2).
This coming week, I'm looking for a bounce back up to 1040-1050 that should fail. In the next week or two, I'm looking for a hard fast fall down to monthly S1 at 1005 or monthly S2 at 954. The right shoulder failure, on a head and shoulders pattern, is usually very fast, because it traps the rookie traders. This selloff could setup up for a November - Xmas rally, and re- test the years high. Use a close above 1050 as your stop loss, if your short.
I have NOT heard anyone on CNBC or Bloomberg talk about this Head N Shoulders pattern, so maybe it will play out this time.