3 weeks from today 12-21-2012

The Mayan calendar ends 3 weeks from today and we have Quad Opex and a major Bradley turn date there too.

My feeling is if we rally into quad opex then we probably will fall of the fiscal cliff and crash in 2013. If we sell off into quad opex then we should see resolution to the fiscal cliff and a big rally will start. If we go sideways into quad opex, then it is anyone's guess. None of this will matter if the Mayans are right!!

ESZ2 MS2 to MPP

What a V-shape bounce we got last week.....up 65 points in 4 days!!!  I was looking for a buy signal on the MS2(1349) pivot and we got one. December ES is now at the 50% Fib from the HOY to the Nov lows. We've gone to far too soon and the moving averages below need to catch up. Look for some consolidation this week and possibly a pull back to 1390, before we go retest last springs high at 1422(Mpp) and the 50 dma. Buy the dips as long as 1390 holds.

Happy Thanksgiving

                       H A P P Y   T H A N K S G I V I N G !!

Monthly S2 held

The bears could not close below the Monthly S2 pivot point at 1349 last week. Look for a rally this week back to the MS1 pivot point at 1375.5-1380.

 

YR3 to YR2/Ms2

Like I wrote on Nov 9th, look for support on the YR2 and MS2 pivot points. We are there now. Need confirmation with a buy candle.

12 year HNS top?

looking like a head and shoulders topping pattern over 12 years.

Monthly S1 pivot point support?

This is OPEX week. December YM did a doji on the monthly S1 pivot point last Friday. We could bounce here. Watch for a gap up open for confirmation on Monday. We should pin 13,000 this week and possibly 12.500. ES 1350 and 1400 strike prices.

YR3 to YR2

Since the yearly R3 pivot point was the high next support will be at yearly R2 at 1355. Also the monthly S2 pivot point is at 1349. Look for support 1350 to 1355 on the ES.

is there still hope for a Holiday rally?

4 years ago, the day after Obama won the election, the market fell 5%. Yesterday was pretty ugly! We broke through the 200 day(white line) and came back down to the Camarilla yearly H3 pivot point. The monthly S1 pivot and the 50 weekly moving average(green line's) are the next support zone 12800ish. Resistance is now at the 200 day above at 13k-13050. There still is hope that we can bounce off the weekly 50 and and fill some gaps above at 13300 in the coming weeks. The high of this year now looks like it is in at 1475 on the S&P and 13700 on the Dow Jones.

Apple weekly 50

Apple has pulled back to the weekly 50 which has been support the past few years. Good risk reward here.

Looking for a rally this week

I'm looking for a bullish week. The market usually rallys after a presidential election is over. I'm still looking for a 2-4 week rally to start any day. The Dow has found support on the 38% fib(dotted white line) and lurking just below is the 200 dma at 12992. The Camarilla YH4 pivot is the high of the year so far. A possibility is we go down to the YH3 pivot at 12908/200ema.

November stats

Per the Stock Traders Almanac, November is the #2 best month of the year for the stock market. During Presidential Election years, November is the #1 best month.
 

Also late October has been a good time to buy beaten down tech stocks! Apple needs to hold the 200dma. Open gap 585.

These are not long term trades!!! I still feel we could crash and burn in 2013 if we fail to make a new all time high of 1576+. This rally could run into  December Quad opex(12/21). S&P 1530(yearly R2 pivot point) is my target. At Dec Quad Opex(12/21) I want to go short going into the end of the year. Next major Bradley Model turn date 12/22/2012.

12/21/2012 is also the end of the Mayan long count calendar. Not the end of the world.